Season 7, Episode 13: Countdown to the Crown + Screen Time

Nancy Clue

Oh my goodness, gay sports season is coming to an end! This is the last set of numbers before the finale. I’ll miss all my Nancy Clue friends for the next nine months. Thanks for obsessing with me.

New screen time analysis! Who got the most screen time in the Ru-Cap? It’s a good thing this season is almost over, because I spent a good couple of hours watching episode 13, 30 seconds at a time. I didn’t just measure the amount of screen time, but also boy vs. drag, sentiment, and what they were doing.

None of my numbers point to Ginger winning (fans, hashtag campaign, Challenge score, screen time). I still have my money on Violet, since she performed best in the challenges, got more positive screen time, and she has the cleverness of Bianca-Jinkx-Sharon-Raja (BJSR). That being said, Pearl has more fans, is winning the hashtag campaign, and got slightly more screen time than Violet. While I’m placing my money on Violet, it’s not without hesitation. Pearl’s screen time was more emotional. From Flazedah to her stare-down with Ru, she was positioned with an Adore level of charm that has won our hearts. Next year she will add color to the Ru-Cap commentary.

I love all three. They are each awesome in their own special ways.

Screen Time

While I would love to say that I calculated every single second that a queen appeared on the Ru-Cap, I’m just not THAT insane. For every 30 second interval, I looked at the following stats for the top 3 queens:

  • Was she featured?
  • Was she featured as a boy, drag queen, or both?
  • What was she doing? (I lumped multiple types of activities into “miscellaneous show shots.” Again, I’m not that crazy.)
  • What was the sentiment? (Positive, negative, neutral)

If I do sentiment again, I will include “shady” since being shady is often a mix of positive and negative, a playful teasing about someone’s weaknesses. For the most part, everything was neutral unless queens from past seasons praised or shamed one of the top 3. For example, Violet got positive points for the cinching section, and Pearl got negative points for the work room encounter.

As I said above, I don’t think the producers are pushing for Ginger. They didn’t show her as much as Violet and Pearl. My sampling math could be throwing it off. If they appeared for even ONE SECOND in the interval, it still counted.

Violet vs. Pearl: The producers tend to show Violet in more challenges compared to the other two. They tend to show Pearl more as a boy compared to the other two. Pearl had the most negative appearances, but also (arguably) the most emotional appearances. Thus, winning hearts and the hashtag campaign.

Boy + drag > appearances because a 30-second interval might include both.

Appearance
  • Pearl appeared in the most intervals, with 46 appearances.
  • Violet was second (44 appearances).
  • Ginger was third (38 appearances).
Boy Appearance
  • Pearl had the most boy appearances (15).
  • Ginger had the fewest boy appearances (9).
Drag Appearance
  • Violet had the most drag appearances (41).
  • Ginger had the fewest drag appearances (32).

Screen Time Appearance

Sentiment
  • Violet had the most positive appearances (9), but Ginger and Pearl both had 8.
  • Pearl had the most negative appearances (4) compared to 1 for Violet and Ginger.

Screen Time Sentiment

Type of Appearance
  • Violet was shown in more challenges (14 vs. 11 for Pearl and 9 for Ginger).
  • Violet was not shown in practices, whereas Ginger and Pearl were shown once in practice.
  • Work room and commentary appearances are the same (1 each). “Commentary” is the backstage boy commentary. If they were doing anything else in that interval, it was usually counted as “Miscellaneous show shots.”
  • Music video appearance is balanced (5 each).

Screen Type Type of Appearance Music Video

HASHTAG CAMPAIGN

  • Pearl keeps winning.
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Source: Talkwalker
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Source: Talkwalker

CHALLENGE SCORE

Last week, the Nancy Drews gave me some good feedback on my scoring system, particularly around the fact that being safe sucks. I altered the formula a little. I left the “AnalRPDR Score” in there for comparison. By giving a weight of +0.5 to Not Being Safe, it enhances the difference between the queens, and positions past season queens in the order that I perceived them.

AnalRPDR Score™ = 3*Wins + 1*Highs – 2*#Btm2

Safe Sucks Score™ = 3*Wins + 1*Highs + 0.5*NotSafe – 2*#Btm2

Bottom line: Violet is 1st, Ginger is 2nd, and Pearl is 3rd.

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SOCIAL MEDIA

Twitter

  • Pearl remains in the lead, with 47,300 followers, followed by Katya (41,400).
  • In seasonal growth, the rank is: Pearl, Katya, Violet, Trixie.
  • Violet Chachki has moved from slot #5 to #3 with 33,700 followers. Miss Fame has moved down from #3 to #5, with 32,000 followers. Trixie has held squarely at #4 with 32,300 followers.
  • Pearl gained the most new followers (3,200; 7%) followed by Violet (2,700; 9%) and Katya (2,500; 6%).
  • Ginger gained 1,500 new followers (7%).

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Twitter a Totals

Twitter b Rank Twitter d Increase #

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Twitter f Season Chart Twitter g Season Totals

 Facebook
  • No change in rank on Facebook, with Pearl in #1 slot, Miss Fame in #2, and Violet in #3. Aryan Airlines tops the Facebook charts.
  • In seasonal growth, the rank is: Pearl, Katya, Violet, Ginger.
  • Pearl gained the most new followers (2,641; 5%), followed by Violet (2,151; 5%), Katya (1,462; 4%) and Ginger (1,389; 6%).
Facebook aa Chart
Facebook a TotalsFacebook b Rank
Facebook c Increase #
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Facebook f Season Chart Facebook g Season Totals

Instagram 

  • Pearl is still flying ahead of the other queens, with 195,000 followers. (Editor’s note: at the time of posting, Pearl has 200,000 followers!)
  • No change in rank. It is still: Pearl, Miss Fame, Violet, and Katya.
  • In seasonal growth, the rank is: Pearl, Violet, Katya, Trixie.
  • Pearl gained the most new followers (11,000), followed by Katya (10,000), Violet (9,000), and Miss Fame (5,000).

Instagram aa Chart

Instagram a Totals

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Screen Shot 2015-05-30 at 1.26.29 PMInstagram f Season ChartInstagram g Season Totals

 

P.S. RuPaul will probably crown Ginger just to spite me.

Season 7, Episode 12: And The Rest Is Drag

Kennedy Davenport Rainbow dress
Photo Credit: Chad Sell

I love how episode 12’s elimination was completely unrelated to the challenge. They ran the queens through the motions of making Ru’s music video, and then did the elimination right after reviewing their overall performance throughout the season.

Kennedy got a fairly good elimination spike, more on Instagram and Facebook than on Twitter. Her story arc was just peaking, and she was sent home on a positive note. Hugs, girl.

It was DragCon week! (Who’s jealous? Me.) I looked at the number of followers on Monday morning, and again on Wednesday night. Both the DragCon increase and episode 12 increase were calculated relative to episode 11. (Episode 12 was not calculated relative to DragCon.)

DragCon: Katya won. She gained the most followers on all three channels by Monday morning. Irregardlessly, she has been eliminated. Miss Congeniality tends to be ranked #4 to #7, and similar to DeLa, Katya’s popularity and recent elimination will likely win her the congenial sash.

Episode 12: Pearl won Twitter. Violet won Facebook. Katya won Instagram.

#TeamX: Hashtag voting is in full force. Pearl is killing it, with 26,800 mentions this week, compared to Violet’s 19,500 and Ginger’s 12,500.

Wins and Bottom 2s: I created a scoring system for their performance in the challenges. Violet has the highest score, with a pattern similar to that of Bianca and Sharon. Pearl’s pattern looks more like Adore’s, but has scored lower than every other queen. Ginger’s pattern looks most like Alexis Mateo’s, with lots of highs and bottom 2 positions. Charts at the end of this post.

What does it all mean?!?! I’m still predicting Violet will take the crown. She scores high on performance in the challenges, and is the second most popular of the top 3. And you know… porn.

Katya will be the Alaska of season 7. People will pay top dollar to see her shows and hear her commentary.

Twitter

  • Katya gained the most new followers during DragCon (2,000), followed by Pearl and Violet (1,300 each).
  • Pearl gained the most new followers by episode 12 (4,900), followed by Katya (4,700) and Violet (3,900). As stated above, these numbers are relative to episode 11, not relative to DragCon.
  • Ginger Minj gained 500 followers after DragCon, and 2,200 followers after episode 12. She has moved up to 6th place, breaking out of her 7th place rut.
  • Kennedy had a small elimination spike, with 892 new followers. She gained 796 after episode 11, but prior to that, was only gaining about 400-500 followers per week. Kennedy tends to re-tweet a lot, adding a lot of clutter to a news feed.
  • Pearl, Katya, and Violet still show the most growth over the course of the season. Pearl: 39.5K; Katya: 29.6K; Violet: 22.8K.

 

Twitter Chart

Twitte Totals 2

Twitter Rank

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Twitter Season Growth Chart

Twitter Season Growth Grid

Facebook

  • Katya gained the most new followers after DragCon (1,687) followed by Violet (1,241) and Pearl (1,058).
  • Violet has gained the most new followers after episode 12 (3,594) followed by Pearl (3,388).
  • Ginger gained 667 followers after DragCon, and 2,572 after episode 12.
  • Kennedy got a bit of an elimination spike this week. She gained 717 (9%) new fans, compared to her usual 200-400.
  • Pearl leads in seasonal growth (35K), compared to Katya’s 32K, and Violet’s 22K.

Facebook Chart

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Facebook Rank

Facebook Increase #

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Facebook Season Growth Chart Facebook Season Growth GridInstagram

  • Pearl leads Instagram with 184,000 followers, having gained 112,000 over the course of the season.
  • Miss Fame still holds second place on Instagram (159,000), with Violet in third place (132,000).
  • Katya gained the most new followers on Instagram, both after DragCon (13,600) and Episode 12 (22,600). She is now in 4th place with 109,000 followers.
  • Pearl (22,000) gained more followers than Violet (19,000).
  • Kennedy saw a nice elimination spike on Instagram. She gained 2,200 new followers (14%) compared to her usual 800. She is now in 11th place, beating out Tempest DuJour.
  • Ginger Minj gained 8,100 new followers, compared to her usual 3,000.

Instagram Chart

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Instagram Increase #

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Instagram Season Growth Chart

Instagram Season Growth Grid

Team Hashtag

  • There is a 100-fold increase in voting this week. Last week, Pearl had 381 mentions over the course of a week. This week, she has 26,800 mentions.
  • Pearl is in first place: 26,800 mentions this week
  • Violet is in second place: 19,500 mentions this week
  • Ginger is in third place: 12,500 mentions this week
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Source: Talkwalker

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Performance in the Challenges

Desperate to have some sort of scoring system that reflects Ru’s decisions, I used jhennauchan’s Wins vs. Placements charts and created a scoring system. Wins get a weight of 3. Highs get a weight of 1. Btm2s get a weight of 2. Here’s my formula:

Score = 3*Wins + 1*Highs – 2*#Btm2

I didn’t include lows and safes because Ru likes vulnerability, seeing improvement, etc. I’m sure there are some of you that have cracked this code. Weigh in on my scoring system, Nancy Drews!

  • Violet has 3 wins, 1 high, and 0 bottom 2. Score = 10
  • Ginger has 3 wins, 2 high, and 2 bottom 2. Score = 7
  • Pearl has 2 wins, 0 highs, and 2 bottom. Score = 2

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39i82Xd - Imgur
Credit: imgur account jhennauchan: https://imgur.com/a/e5G9C

 

Season 7, Episode 11: Hello, Kitty Girls!

And the winner of RuPaul’s Drag Race is… WHO CARES?

Drag Heads
Or maybe it’s this meme. Hallelujiah!

Don’t get me wrong. I love the remaining four queens. I would drop some change to see them at a live show and beg for a selfie. I can intellectually rationalize why they could be crowned. But none of them make my heart go pitter-patter the way Bianca, Jinkx, Sharon, and Raja did.

Katya made our hearts go pitter-patter, and her elimination spike illustrates the outpouring of love from the fans. She gained the most new followers on every channel: 4,300 on Twitter, 4,373 on Facebook, and 12,400 on Instagram. At least she’ll be Miss Congeniality. Because duh.

It’s time to start tracking hashtag campaigns! I used a tool called Talkwalker, and the hashtag ranking lines up the same as the rest of social media ranking. (Posted after the social channels report.)

Of the remaining queens:

  • Pearl is 1st place on all channels, including total followers and total new seasonal followers. She has been for a long time. #TeamPearl = 381 mentions this week.
  • Violet is close to the top (5th on Twitter, 3rd on Facebook and Instagram). #TeamViolet = 258 mentions this week.
  • Ginger is in the middle (7th place on all three channels). #TeamGinger = 94 mentions this week.
  • Kennedy is in the bottom 3rd (11th on Twitter, 13th on Facebook, and 12th on Instagram). #TeamKennedy = 85 mentions this week.

I’m thinking Violet will win this thing. Violet has the highest C.U.N.T. score of the remaining queens, three wins and only two lows, and has a RuPaul-like werk ethic.

Pearl scores highest on the social media (“pitter-patter”) race, but Ru’s criticism of Pearl’s attitude on What’s the T makes me think he won’t pick her. She has also been in the bottom two twice. Ginger is middle of the road (#7 on every channel) on social media, and comedy queens were kicked off like flies this season. I think Ru wants a fashion gal. Kennedy (bless her) just isn’t popular enough.

Twitter

  • The last two episodes have been major spikes for Katya. She gained 4,300 new followers this week. You can see the sharp increase in followers in the first chart, where she flew past Miss Fame.
  • Pearl has (still) gained the most new followers over the season (27,600), but Katya is not far behind, with 24,861 gained.
  • Violet (2,900) has gained more followers than Pearl this week (2,600).
  • Kennedy has been in 12th place since episode 7, and she has now leapt past Kandy Ho for 11th place.
  • Jaidynn is now in the 8th place, and Tempest is now in 9th place. They are neck-and-neck, with Jaidynn leading Tempest by 70 followers.

Twitter Graph

Twitter Totals

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Twitter Season Growth Graph

Twitter Season Growth Grid

Facebook

  • Katya gained the most new followers (4,373), with Pearl several laps behind (2,429).
  • Pearl (+31,623) is narrowly beating Katya (+29,833) in total followers accrued over the course of the season.
  • Violet (36,619) has more total followers than Katya (33,314), but Katya has gained more new followers (29,833 vs. Violet’s 18,620) over the course of the season.
  • Mrs. Kasha has increased to #10, beating Jasmine by 284 followers.

Facebook Graph

Facebook Totals

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Facebook Increase #

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Facebook Season Growth Graph

Facebook Season Growth Grid

Instagram

  • Katya gained 12,400 new followers this week, and jumped to spot #4, sending Trixie down a notch. (It’s okay. They’re still friends.)
  • Over the season, Pearl has gained 112,200 new followers, compared to Violet’s 78,700. For comparison, Ginger has gained 25,800, and Kennedy has gained 15,200.
  • Can we give some love to Jasmine? Her loss in followers (likely due to blocking) makes me sad. Come on, RuPaul’s best friend race!

Instagram Graph

Instagram Totals

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Instagram Increase # 
Instagram Season Growth Graph Instagram Season Growth Grid

 

Hashtag Campaigns

  • #TeamPearl: 381 mentions over the last week
  • #TeamViolet: 258 mentions over the last week
  • #TeamGinger: 94 mentions over the last week
  • #TeamKennedy: 85 mentions over the last week
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#TeamPearl
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#TeamViolet
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#TeamGinger
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#TeamKennedy

Season 7, Episode 10: Prancing Queens

Katya boy girl
Our little ray of sunshine. So beautiful.

Happy Mother’s Day! This week was all about Katya. You can celebrate now.  Thousands of her children cried with delight when she and Violet delivered this. Katya is now ranked 2nd on Twitter, beating out Miss Fame. She gained the most new followers on Twitter and Facebook, and she pulled a Pearl on Instagram with 10,500 new fans in one week.

After a long gestation, we are getting close to crowning! The top 3, according to fans, are Pearl, Katya and Violet. Pearl is #1 on all three social media channels. Katya is #2 on Facebook and Twitter. Violet is #2 on Instagram.

Pearl has the most fans, but has lip synched twice. Katya has the highest C.U.N.T. score and has ranked high for most challenges. Violet won the W.W.R.P.D.? poll, and she hasn’t had to lip sync yet. Ginger has had the most wins but has been in the bottom 2 twice. Kennedy has ranked high for most challenges, but doesn’t have the social media fans. So who’s it gonna be? Last year it was so obvious. RuPaul loved Bianca, and the people loved Bianca. This year, Ru’s decisions keep us on our toes. Good job, Ru!

Other stuff:

  • Trixie did not get an elimination spike this week. But she got a lot of love on Reddit.
  • Eerie tidbit: Ginger has sat firmly in lucky spot #7 on all three channels since Episode 5.
  • I’ve already talked about Kennedy. Nothing has changed. Even hitting on Pearl didn’t get her more followers this week. (God, that was cute.)
  • Miss Fame is still killing it on Instagram.

Twitter

  • Katya has moved up to 2nd place, and Miss Fame has moved down to #3.
  • Katya gained the most new followers (2,500; 9%), with Pearl close behind (2,300; 7%)
  • Trixie did not get an elimination spike the second time around. She gained 1,500 new followers, compared to last week’s 1,800.
  • The top 3 remaining queens, based on seasonal growth, are Pearl, Katya and Violet.

Twitter Chart

Twitter Totals

Twitter Rank

Twitter Increase #

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Twitter Season Growth Chart

Twitter Season Growth

Facebook

  • Pearl moved up to 1st place, with Miss Fame now in 2nd place.
  • Katya moved up to 4th place (from 6th place), and Max has moved down from #4 to #6.
  • Katya gained the most new followers (3,613; 14%), with Pearl close behind (2,734; 7%).
  • The top 3 remaining queens, based on seasonal growth, are Pearl, Katya and Violet.

Facebook Chart

Facebook Totals

Facebook Rank

Facebook Increase #

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Facebook Season Growth Chart

Facebook Season Growth

Instagram

  • Trixie has moved from 5th place to 4th place. Katya has moved from 6th place to 5th place. Trixie is only winning by 800 followers. I predict that Katya will be in 4th place by next week.
  • Max is now in 6th place, down from 4th place.
  • Pearl gained the most new followers this week (12,000) and now has 151,000 followers.
  • Katya gained 10,500 new followers this week (17%), far exceeding her performance of the last two weeks (7,200 and 5,800).
  • The top 3 remaining queens, based on seasonal growth, are Pearl, Katya and Violet.

Instagram Chart

Instagram Totals

Instagram Rank

Instagram Increase #

Instagram Increase %

Instagram Season Growth Chart

Instagram Season Growth

Flah-zay-dah (from Sissy that ArT)

FuauDqs

Season 7, Episode 9: Divine Inspiration (+ Hotness Correlation)

Trixie and Ginger

John Waters was on Drag Race! The queens’ ugliness got to shine, sending Miss Fame home. Ginger and Trixie smashed some eggs and Katya spread her legs. It was a beautiful mess.

There’s just something about Pearl. If Bianca’s Twitter track record is any indication, Pearl could win this thing.

If you’ve been following this blog, you know that Pearl has been ranked #1 on Twitter since episode 3. She is now #1 on Instagram, and #2 on Facebook, second only to Miss Fame by only 218 followers. Now that Fame has disappeared, it it very likely that Pearl will jump to #1 on Facebook by next week.

BREAKING NEWS! AS OF THIS BLOG’S PUBLISHING DATE, PEARL IS IN THE LEAD ON FACEBOOK BY 45 FOLLOWERS.

Speaking of Pearl, I also looked at the correlation between hotness and number of followers. People keep asking if Pearl is doing well because boy-Pearl is hot. The short answer:  Definitely on Instagram, yes on Facebook and Twitter. But personality matters. More detail below.*

It was a good week for Katya. Her Brooklyn hipster crocheted realness gave her a chance to shine. She gained the most followers this week on Twitter and Facebook, and gained more followers than usual on Instagram.

Miss Fame had a small elimination spike on Facebook and Instagram, potentially also due to the release of her catchy song, Rubber Doll. On Facebook, she gained about 2-3 times more followers than her usual (2,300 vs. 800). She gained about 20% more than her usual on Instagram. However, Miss Fame saw no spike on Twitter. Evidently, 140 characters isn’t her forte.

Jasmine lost Instagram followers this week. When I went to check out her page, I saw that she marked her page as private. This makes me sad that she has done so poorly in PR land, especially since Trixie said Jasmine is one of the funniest queens on the show.

We are getting close to the end of the season. (Boo.) This means that we can look more at seasonal growth, rather than relative increase in fans. I’ll keep including the seasonal rankings until the end of the show. While many people think that Ginger will win (winner’s edit, time for a big girl), the remaining queens that we are drawn to are Pearl, Katya, Trixie, and Violet. As I’ve said before, the pretty queens are doing better on Instagram, and the funny queens are doing better on Twitter. Except for Pearl. She’s just doing well.

Twitter

  • There are no changes in rank for the past two episodes.
  • Katya is in third place by 100 followers, right behind Miss Fame. I predict that she will be 2nd place by next week.
  • The following queens have seen the most growth over the season: Pearl (22,700), Katya (18,061), and Trixie (17,009).
  • Katya gained the most new followers this week (2,500), followed by Pearl (2,200).
  • Violet and Trixie both gained 1,800 followers. Ginger gained 1,700.
  • No elimination spike for Miss Fame. She is still doing well, with 1,600 new followers this week (6%), similar to last week (1,500).

Twitter Graph

Twitter Totals

Twitter Rank

Twitter Increase #

Twitter Increase %

Twitter Season Graph

Twitter Season Grid

Facebook

  • Miss Fame and Pearl have been competing for spot #1 for the last couple of weeks. Miss Fame is beating Pearl by 218 followers. I predict that Pearl will return to #1 after next week’s episode.
  • Max is back in 4th place, with Trixie knocked down to spot #5. This rivalry is still strong. Max is only beating Trixie by 83 followers.
  • Katya gained the most followers (2,529; 11%).
  • Miss Fame is a close second, with 2,313 / 6% new followers. She has a bit of an elimination spike this week, as she has typically gotten less than a thousand followers for the past couple of weeks.
  • Kennedy is hanging out at spot #13.

Facebook Graph

Facebook Totals

Facebook Rank

Facebook Increase #

Facebook Increase %

Facebook Season Graph

Facebook Season Grid

Instagram

  • Pearl is now ranked #1. She has gained 10,000 followers in the last week, and 89,000 followers since episode 1. That’s more followers than most queens have, period.
  • Violet gained 9,200 followers this week, which is slightly higher than the last couple of weeks (8,100 and 8,600).
  • Katya had a bit of a spike this week. She gained 7,200 followers. In weeks past, she gained about 4,500-6,000 new followers.
  • Jaidynn beat Kandy for spot #8. Kandy is now #9.
  • Jasmine has closed her Instagram account and now has a small drop in followers.

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Instagram Totals

Instagram Rank

Instagram Increase #

Instagram Increase %  Instagram Season Graph

Instagram Season Growth

Hotness

My readers often wonder if Pearl is doing so well because boy-Pearl is hot. It’s correlation time! Is there a relationship between hotness and fans? I asked the RPDR reddit community to rank their queen-hotness and boy-hotness, and 1,830 responded. In addition, since one person wondered if there was a relationship between queen-hotness and boy-hotness, I ran a regression on that as well.

Results

  • The hottest boys are Pearl, Miss Fame and Max.
  • The hottest queens are Violet, Miss Fame and Pearl.
  • The least hot boys are Ginger, Jasmine and Kennedy.
  • The least hot queens are Jasmine, Tempest and Ginger.
  • The strongest correlations are:
    • Boy hotness and Instagram followers (R = 0.884).*
    • Queen hotness and Instagram followers (R = 0.875).
  • The weakest correlations are:
    • Drag Queen hotness and Facebook followers (R = 0.756).
    • Drag Queen hotness and Twitter followers (R = 0.788).
    • Boy hotness and Facebook followers (R = 0.796).
  • Queens that are hotter than their boys include Violet, Katya, Kandy, Jaidynn, Kennedy and Ginger.
  • Boys that are hotter than their queens include Trixie and Sasha.
  • However, there is a strong correlation between boy hotness and queen hotness (R = 0.866).

What does this mean?

  1. Hotness really matters on Instagram. Drag race involves a runway, after all.
  2. Hotness is enhanced by personality. If we took this poll after episode 1, Kandy would be beating Katya on both rating systems. But Katya has opened her legs and won our hearts. Hot.
  3. Hotness doesn’t matter as much on Facebook and Twitter, but it still matters. (Who wants to rate their personalities next week? Meeee.)
  4. There is a very strong relationship between queen hotness and boy hotness. I don’t think we can be objective when rating hotness. The boy informs the queen, and the queen informs the boy. We can’t separate those two packages.

Boy Hotness Queen Hotness Queen vs Boy HotnessScreen Shot 2015-05-02 at 4.19.38 PM

* Note: I accidentally used R-squared instead of R at first. This has been changed since the initial post.