On Predicting the Queen

It’s been over a week since Violet was crowned. Since that fateful day, I have seen a few comments saying that her win was obvious. Maybe that’s true, but I saw a lot of conflicting guesses beforehand. I cautiously predicted Violet in my last post.

I was nervous while I sat and viewed the finale. Last year, my blog had 10 readers per week. In addition, we knew that Bianca would win. She did best in the challenges, and she was the most popular. This year was not so straightforward. In addition, I get about 5,000 hits per week, so I had more at stake.

I texted my friends, “If it’s Violet, it’s about the challenges. If it’s Pearl, it’s about the fans. And if it’s Ginger, RuPaul is telling us she can do whatever the hell she wants.” I want to emphasize that I love Ginger, but she didn’t do as well as Violet in the challenges (based on Ru’s ratings), and she has fewer fans than the other two queens. Ginger is beautiful, and does an adorable interview in the Feast of Fun podcast. (Hi Ginger! I doubt you read my blog!)

Pearl is by far the most popular. She had the most fans on all social media channels, and she won the hashtag campaign. But she didn’t do as well in the challenges. See final numbers here.

I had more confidence with Katya as Miss Congeniality. This one was a no-brainer. Miss Congeniality is a popularity contest, and it’s usually given to someone in 4th or 5th place.

My assumptions for predicting the queen

  • Challenges are extremely important
  • Popularity tips the scale

The hashtag campaign originated (I believe) in Season 5, when Jinkx and Alaska were neck-and-neck on challenge scores, and they needed a tie-breaker. Now it’s tradition. We can’t do the show without a fan vote. But the fan vote does not trump Ru’s evaluation of the queens during the contest.

So there you go. Congratulations to Violet. You are stunning, you push the boundaries of drag, you make the judges rethink their gender assumptions, your burlesque performances are hot, and I can’t wait to see you when you come to Seattle for Pride weekend.