Season 8, Episode 3: RuCo’s Empire

I’m loading today’s post with zillions of graphs. For those of you whining about math being hard, here’s the TL;DR:

  • Getting a good edit means people are more likely to follow you on social media, at least by episode 3 on Instagram and Twitter, but not so much for episode 1. And not so much for Facebook.
  • We rated the queen’s C.U.N.T.s. Thorgy, Bob, Acid and Kim are doing well.
  • The people are now IN LOVE with Thorgy.
  • Cynthia got an elimination spike.
  • Everyone knows Acid is evil but talented.
  • Derrick Barry isn’t going to last much longer. Her edit has been skewing negative (but not in an EVIL way) and she is flatlining on social media followers. This makes me sad because Oops I Did It Again is my go-to karaoke song and I feel a sisterly tie to Derrick.

Correlation Station!

Last week, /u/verbiwhore posed the question, “Is there a relationship between positive edit and social media following?” Of course I read that as, “Does this social media data mean ANYTHING?!?!” because I wonder that myself. Luckily for our little whore, I sat on a plane for many hours this week. How do I spend my vacation? Excel! (And reading Carrie Brownstein’s autobiography during takeoff and landing.)

I not only looked at positive edit, but I also looked at overall edit (positive minus negative) and negative edit. There is no (inverse) correlation between negative edit and social media following. But a queen’s Positive Edit and Overall Edit do appear to predict the acquisition of new followers on Instagram and Twitter for Episode 3, in which the R-squared values lie somewhere between 0.75 and 0.84 (AKA, strong correlation).

I’ll keep running these numbers to see if it’s a better predictor as time goes on, and the stories are more refined. Episode 1 is a chaotic meet-n-greet, and we don’t get a strong edit for much of anyone.

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Positive Edit Ep 1-3 Overall Edit Ep 1-3 Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 2.37.07 AM
New Twitter Ep 1-3

C.U.N.T. Scores

I ran a poll on Reddit to rate the queens’ Charisma, Uniqueness, Nerve and Talent. I’ve included standard deviation to illustrate how much variance there was in voting. Not surprising, people tended to agree about Thorgy, Bob, Kim (lower standard deviation) and there was more variation around Acid (slightly higher standard deviation). I’d like to run it again in a few episodes to see how scoring changes as we get to know the queens.

For what it’s worth, Violet didn’t do as well as Trixie and Katya in last year’s C.U.N.T. poll.

  • Charisma winners: Thorgy, Bob, and Chi Chi
  • Uniqueness winners: Acid, Kim, Thorgy
  • Nerve winners: Acid, Bob, Thorgy
  • Talent winners: Thorgy, Bob, Acid
  • Overall C.U.N.T. Score: Thorgy, Bob, Acid

Charisma

Thorgy, Bob and Chi Chi were voted to have the most charisma. There’s also a fairly low standard deviation for those three, indicating that most people converge on a similar score. Dax, Laila, Derrick and Naysha scored lower than the other queens.

The most disagreement is on Acid Betty, who scored 6.5, with a standard deviation of 2.2.

Charisma Graph

Charisma Numbers

Uniqueness

Acid Betty, Kim Chi, and Thorgy received high uniqueness scores. There is a strong agreement from voters that they deserve a high score, especially Kim Chi with 1.1 standard deviation. Acid Betty has a slightly higher score than Kim, but also has more variance. Laila, Derrick and Naysha are low on uniqueness, but there is a higher standard deviation for Laila and Derrick (2.3).

Uniqueness Graph Uniqueness Numbers

Nerve

Acid and Bob received high nerve scores, with more agreement among voters on Bob. (What? Acid is polarizing?!) Naysha, Laila and Dax have low nerve scores.

There was a stronger disagreement about Laila’s score. Her average score is low (5.3), but the standard deviation is 2.3. I imagine some were rating her nerve (as in confidence), and others were rating her nerve (as in roll around on the floor with a whip).

Nerve Graph

Nerve Numbers

Talent

Thorgy and Bob are highest in the talent category. Acid is in third place, but there is a higher variance / standard deviation for Acid (1.8 compared to 1.2 or 1.3). Naysha, Laila and Dax have low talent scores.

There is a higher standard deviation in the talent category. I wonder if this will change when we see more challenges.

Talent Graph Talent Numbers

Total C.U.N.T. Score

Thorgy, Bob, Acid, Kim… Maybe a little Chi Chi.

TNUC Graph

TNUC NumbersScreen Time

Are you still reading? This week’s post just feels ridiculously long. Maybe because it’s 3am here.

  • Bob and Thorgy are closely tied for best edit. About 80% of respondents said they got the most positive edit.
  • Acid, Robbie, Cynthia, and Derrick got the most negative edit this week.
  • I didn’t notice Derrick’s edit to be so negative, but maybe she drives you crazy.

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Story Arc

While we’re at it, let’s take a look at a handful of queens’ story arcs. I’ll keep adding these as the season progresses. In my fantasy world, we would rate the queens’ story arcs from past seasons and then define patterns, such as redemption arc and black horse. Did I mention it’s late?

Thorgy started silent/neutral and got WAY more positive.

Thorgy Story Arc

As Thorgy got more positive, Acid got more negative.

Acid Story Arc

Chi Chi had a spike when she won a challenge.

Chi Chi Story Arc

Naomi and Naysha have been kind of invisible.

Naomi Story Arc Naysha Story Arc

Instagram

  • Kim still holds a strong lead, with 179K followers on Instagram. When you look at the chart, you’ll see how far behind the rest of the queens are.
  • Bob has 96K followers, with 21% growth.
  • Derrick has 69K followers, with 8% growth. Derrick’s growth continues to slow.
  • Cynthia has an elimination spike. She typically has gained 4K followers per episode, and gained 7.7K on Instagram (48%). She jumped from #11 to #9 in the rankings.
  • Robbie and Naysha moved down to #10 and #11, respectively.
  • Chi Chi gained increased her following by 69% this week. Her growth has been exponential, with 2.3K followers after episode 1, 5K after episode 2, and now 8K after episode 3. Still, Bob, Thorgy and Kim have gotten between 17K and 27K new followers in a week.
  • Thorgy and Acid traded rankings. Thorgy is now #5, and Acid is now #6.

Instagram Bar Graph

Instagram Raw Numbers

Instagram Rank

Instagram Increase Number Instagram Increase Percentage
Twitter

  • Kim Chi has a strong lead with 24.6K followers. She acquired 3.9K new fans, at 19% growth.
  • Bob holds 2nd place, with 19.2K followers, +3.9K, 25% increase.
  • Thorgy moved from #6 to #3 this week, leaping past Derrick, Naomi and Laila. She gained 4,000 new followers (48%).
  • Cynthia had an elimination spike. She gained 2K new followers, compared to about 1K in the last two episodes.
  • Naysha came back, and got 900 new followers, compared to 700 from last week. This is consistent with her episode 1 results.
  • Robbie gained more new Twitter followers than usual, with 1000, rather than about 600.

Twitter Bar Graph

Twitter Raw Numbers

Twitter Rank

Twitter Increase Numbers Twitter Increase Percentage
Facebook

  • Derrick still holds a strong lead with 41K followers. She only increased followers by 6% this week.
  • Acid holds 2nd place, slightly ahead of Kim Chi. Both Acid and Kim gained about 1.8K new followers (11%).
  • Thorgy jumped from spot #8 to spot #6 this week, gaining 4.2K new followers (68%).
  • Naomi consistently gains ~2K followers each week, and has held 5th place since the week before launch.

Facebook Bar Graph

Facebook Raw Numbers

Facebook Rank

Facebook Increase Number Facebook Increase Percentage

 

Season 8, Episode 2: Bitch Perfect

My New Best Friend!

With the goal of saturating the RuPaul Universe with as much geeky information as possible, /u/gmccl and I have formed a data alliance. He makes it look really gorgeous and I talk about it. Check out the image from last week. He calculates confessional screen time, which I’m adding to this season’s data. Data gold!! Check it out:

GMCCLsInfograph

The Drama Unfolds

Episode 2! It’s like that moment when you get a fresh cup of tea and it’s still hot and full of so much promise. What magic do I get to experience between now and the end of this season?!  When you compare storylines/screen time between this week and last week, you can see the heroes and villains emerging. Acid is evil, and Chi Chi and Thorgy are practically saints. Kim Chi and Bob are still lovable. Ru ruthlessly axed two queens.

Social Media Trends

At this point in the season, relative growth in social media followers is more meaningful now than it is later on.  In this order, Chi Chi, Thorgy, Cynthia and Naomi showed the highest relative growth in followers after this episode.  Chi Chi has the fewest social media followers on all three channels, BUT, Shreveport fans, she also has the highest relative growth by a landslide. 73% on Instagram, 51% on Twitter, and 115% on Facebook.

Historically speaking, we saw both high totals and high growth at the beginning of the season for Bianca, Courtney, Adore, and Pearl. Kim and Bob are following this trend, showing high totals and high relative growth on Instagram and Twitter (~30%-35%). However, they are not showing as much growth as other queens on Facebook (17% for Kim, 7% for Bob).

I wondered if Derrick Barry’s following would mirror that of Adore and Courtney. Both Adore and Courtney came into the show with a solid fan base due to American Idol, and they showed strong growth week after week. Derrick has a high placement after Episode 2 (#1 on Facebook, #3 on Instagram and Twitter), but her relative growth is among the lowest (11% on Instagram, 9% on Twitter, 8% on Facebook). Derrick’s screen time was pretty low this week. We’ll see if things picks up for her next week.

Laila and Dax did not get the usual elimination spike. This makes me think that the audience believed and agreed with Ru’s elimination. Really, ladydudes? That was so contrived. Laila and Dax were robbed. (If you want a good read on how phony it was, go read Eric Rezsnyak’s write-up.)

Screen Time

Thanks to /u/gmccl’s painstaking work, we now know how much time the queens are shown in confessional. Laila, Chi Chi and Kim got the most confessional time this week, while Robbie, Naomi and Derrick were rendered invisible.

  • Laila appeared in confessionals for the longest amount of time this week (97 seconds) and appeared in ten confessional scenes.
  • Kim Chi, who knows how this game works, hopped right into The Shade Tree and got 86 seconds of confessional time, and 8 confessional scenes.
  • Chi Chi, our winner, got 73 seconds of complaining about Acid Betty.
  • Acid Betty didn’t get much confessional time. We just got to hear everyone else talk about her.

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I ran a poll to see how viewers perceive the queens’ edits (positive vs. negative). While Dax and Laila got elimination edits (which skew negative), the real storyline battle was between Chi Chi and Acid, with benevolent narrator Thorgy citing specific examples of what makes Acid so “difficult.”

  • Chi Chi, Kim, and Thorgy got the highest positive perceived edit scores. Approximately 70% of voters said they got the most positive screen time.
  • Acid, Dax and Laila got the highest negative scores in the confessional. 75% – 82% of voters said they had the most negative screen time.
  • For overall score (positive votes – negative votes), Thorgy Thorgy (69.4) and Chi Chi (68.9) are essentially tied for first place, with Kim Chi at 61.4. Next in line is Bob, with a score of 30.6.
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Who got the most positive screen time? Pick three. 350 responses. Scores based on percent of viewers who voted for each queen.
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Who got the most negative screen time? Pick three. 350 responses. Scores based on percent of viewers who voted for each queen.
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Positive Edit minus Negative Edit

Instagram

  • Kim Chi still has a staggering lead, with 153K followers. Next in line is Bob the Drag Queen (79K), and Derrick Barry (64.2K).
  • Rank remains unchanged from last week.
  • Chi Chi DeVayne still has the fewest followers, but her following increased by 73%.
  • If you look at the top graph, you can see stronger relative growth in Kim Chi, Bob, Naomi, and Thorgy.

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Twitter

  • Kim Chi (20.7K) and Bob (15.3K) lead the Twitter pack. Kim Chi (+4.7K) and Bob (+3.5K) also gained the most new followers, at about 30% increase each.
  • Derrick is in third place, but you can look at her graph and tell she is slowing down. She only gained 900 new followers, with the lowest relative increase (9%).
  • Chi Chi is still ranked #12, but is showing fast growth. She had the highest relative increase in Twitter followers (51%, +1527).
  • Thorgy also had a high relative increase (45%) and gained more than Chi Chi (2.6K). I get a giddy lesbian crush feeling every time I open up one of Thorgy’s social media pages and would cry in my pants if she were top 3.
  • Thorgy and Cynthia moved up in rank. Thorgy moved from #7 to #6, and Cynthia moved from #11 to #10.
  • Acid and Naysha moved down in rank. Acid moved from #6 to #7, and Naysha moved from #10 to #11.
  • Laila is 4th place on Twitter, and performing better here than in Instagram and Facebook. I predict she will be surpassed by Thorgy and Naomi next week.

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Facebook

  • Derrick has the largest fan base at 39K followers. She has also gained the most followers (+3010).
  • Acid is in second place on Facebook, with 17K followers.
  • Naomi Smalls is in 5th place, but she gained more followers than Kim, Acid, and Thorgy this week (+2,359).
  • Chi Chi only gained 872 followers, but that is more than Cynthia, Naysha and Robbie, and a relative increase of 115%.
  • Thorgy moved up in rank, from #10 to #8.
  • Robbie moved down in rank, from #8 to #10.
  • Christopher Caldwell’s (13K) account has more fans than Bob the Drag Queen’s (10.7K).

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Predictions

It’s too early to predict, but if I had to, I would expect Kim and Bob in the top three, with either Acid Betty (the talented villain) or Chi Chi (the underdog). Thorgy will be Miss Congeniality because of her strong-but-not-insane social media following and her level-headed, liberal arts explanation of Acid Betty’s wretched personality.

P.S. I did not get to see enough of Dax.

Season 8, Episode 1: Keeping It 100!

Hey you queer nerds! Time for a group hug. I’m excited to be tracking the queens on this season. They are fierce, lovable, and quirky. Let me know what else you would like to see on my blog this season. I always love your feedback and ideas. Okay, stop hugging. Let’s get down to business.

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Kim Chi is killing it. Her confessionals, her runway look, her photo… she is what makes America great. And holy doughnut, she is already surpassing Miss Fame’s insane growth from Season 7. She has the most followers on both Instagram and Twitter.

Derrick owns the Facebook crowd. Isn’t she lucky, this Vegas girl? I’m curious to see how fast the front runners catch up.

Who are the front runners? Bob, Kim and Derrick are doing consistently well. They have lots of followers and are getting mostly positive screen time. Naomi, Thorgy, Acid, and Laila have a healthy fan following. Naomi and Thorgy’s edits skew positive, and Laila and Acid’s edits skew negative.

Cynthia and Chi Chi have not cultivated much of a social media following, and are consistently the bottom 2 for each site. WHYYYYYYYY? I love both of them and so should everybody else. The good news is that both of them are seeing high relative increases in followers.

All new! Editing! Since we talk about editing all the time…

…we might as well score it. My new best friend /u/gaynacular counted the number of confessionals for each queen and gave me permission to input their data into a mint green bar graph. This is a nice proxy for seeing how much attention each queen gets. Robbie’s score is on point, but is anyone else surprised that Naomi is a close second to Robbie? I mean, that boat was a big deal, but I just felt like I heard a lot more Robbie.

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And then 385 of my new best friends on Reddit answered a poll about who got the most positive and negative screen time.  I haven’t worked this into a formal scoring system, but we can point to the graphs and say, “See, Ru? You totally robbed Dax in episode 1.”

Bottom line, for those of you who don’t care about scoring systems

Bob and Kim Chi got the most positive screen time, and Chi Chi did favorably. Thorgy skewed positive. Robbie, Acid, Derrick and Laila got the most negative screen time. Dax, Cynthia and Naomi are hanging out in purgatory – with very few positive or negative votes. Even though Naomi had 8 confessionals, they must have come across as fairly neutral to the audience.

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S8E1 Negative Edit S8E1 Overall Edit

Poll Detail, for those of you who care

385 redditors answered the questions, “Who got the most positive screen time? (Pick 3.)” and “Who got the most negative screen time? (Pick 3.)” Since I’ll be posting this poll every week, I normalized the data by showing the percentage of people who voted for that queen. For example, 24% of voters said that Robbie got a negative edit, so his Negative Edit score is -24. Five percent said he got a positive edit, so his Positive Edit score is 5. His overall edit score is -19. (Stats geeks, feel free to message me about a proper way to handle this.)

Instagram

  • Kim Chi is still in the lead, now with 117K followers, having gained 31K (37%) new followers in the last week. She has TWICE as many followers as Bob and Derrick.
  • Bob the Drag Queen and Derrick Barry are essentially tied for second place, with ~58K followers. Technically, Bob the Drag Queen jumped to spot #2, and Derrick moved down to #3. Derrick has the smallest relative increase in followers (12%).
  • Naomi Smalls jumped from #5 to #4, with 39.5K followers (+11.8K, +43%).
  • Acid Betty is moved from #4 to #5, with 37.3K followers (+8.9K, +31%).
  • Chi Chi is the only queen with less than 10K followers, but increased her following by 52% (2.3K) this week. I imagine her following is going to explode in the next few weeks.

Instagram Bar Graph Instagram Raw Numbers Instagram Rank Instagram Increase Numbers Instagram Increase Percentage

Twitter

  • Kim Chi has the most followers (16K), up by 4,600 (40%) this week.
  • Beyonce is now ranked #2, having jumped past Britney (#3). She gained 3K more followers, compared to Britney’s 1.3K.
  • Chi Chi saw the highest relative increase in followers (60%, +1.1K), perhaps because she was endorsed by BenDeLaCreme.

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Facebook Rank

  • When you look at the chart, all you see is Derrick’s 36K followers, and everyone else looks like piddly little ants hoping desperately for some crumbs.
  • If you use a magnifying lens, you can see that Acid Betty has 15K (2nd place) and Kim Chi has 13K (3rd place).
  • Naomi Smalls has a high increase in followers (+2.7K, 42%).
  • Right now, Christopher Caldwell (Bob the Drag Queen) has more followers than Bob the Drag Queen, Entertainer. Christopher has 12.3K followers. Bob has 7K. I’ll start adding Bob’s numbers into the main chart when Bob beats Christopher.
  • Robbie jumped from spot #10 to spot #8, beating out Thorgy and Dax. This just shows that screen time, even if it’s negative, gets you attention.
  • Chi Chi got a 236% increase in followers (from 225 to 756).

Facebook Bar Graph

Facebook Raw Numbers

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Season 8, Pre-Season

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Acid Betty Instagram Art

Hello again, squirrel friends! We’re here! Season 8! The lineup looks fabulous, and I’m so excited to watch them all become famous over the next few months.

Our magical Reddit group predicted all but one of the contestants this summer. I spent the summer feverishly tracking about 25 queens’ social media activity. Today, we can see how many followers Season 8 queens have gained simply by being selected by RuPaul. This week’s post will be pretty light, with full fledged posts in weeks to come.

Right now, the leaders of the social media pack are Kim Chi, Derrick Barry, Bob the Drag Queen, and Acid Betty. Kim Chi has already been associated with RPDR queens in the past, which gave her an edge prior to Ru’s announcement. Derrick Barry… because Britney in Vegas. Bob the Drag Queen is hilarious and loved by the Redditors. Acid Betty has an incredibly creative aesthetic (Renaissance alien runway?).

This year, it seems that Ru is going after a more avant garde queen. Between Acid Betty, Kim Chi, and Dax’s stunning caricatures, to Thorgy and Bob’s irreverence, I get a stronger sense of performance art from this group.

Inaccuracy Notices

  • My summer 2015 count is based on two different dates: July 19 (first week of filming) and Aug 16 (right after filming). For some reason, I only recorded one or the other for each queen. I consolidated them into “Summer 2015” for the sake of comparison.
  • I did not track Chi Chi DeVayne this summer.
  • Some queens switched from Friend pages to Fan pages on Facebook. Since I’ll be using Fan pages during Season 8, I went ahead and mixed the two numbers in these graphs. In other words, you see the number of friends from this summer, and the number of fans from this February.

Instagram – Who’s Fun to Look At?

  • Kim Chi has a Miss Fame level lead, with 85K followers on Instagram.
  • Derrick Barry and Bob the Drag Queen are closely tied for second, with 51K and 45K followers, respectively. Bob has had more growth than Derrick as a result of the S8 announcement (Jan 31 to Feb 29). Derrick, who had no Instagram in summer 2015, had more growth than Bob between Summer 2015 and the night before the announcement (Jan 31).
  • Acid Betty and Naomi Smalls have the next tier, with ~28K followers.

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Twitter – Who’s Fun to Talk To?

  • Kim Chi has the lead, with 11,400 Twitter followers.
  • Derrick Barry and Bob the Drag Queen are closely tied for second place, with ~8,700 followers each.

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Facebook – Who’s Your BFF?

Facebook is strange, since a lot of RPDR drag queens tend to switch their pages from a Friend page to a Fan page and increase their privacy settings on their personal pages. Therefore, don’t trust these numbers when you’re looking at growth.

  • Derrick Barry strongly leads the Facebook pack, with 33K followers. She also started with the strongest following this summer, with 17.6K followers. As of this summer, she posted on Facebook almost daily, and likely has a following from her impersonation work in Vegas. If you read my post on Season 8 speculation, you’ll see that the tumblr page is probably the only one she personally keeps up. 😉 😉 😉
  • Acid Betty, Bob the Drag Queen, and Kim Chi are tied for second, with 10K-12K followers.
  • Cynthia Lee Fontaine and Chi Chi DeVayne started their fan pages right around February 2nd.

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