Season 8, Episode 3: RuCo’s Empire

I’m loading today’s post with zillions of graphs. For those of you whining about math being hard, here’s the TL;DR:

  • Getting a good edit means people are more likely to follow you on social media, at least by episode 3 on Instagram and Twitter, but not so much for episode 1. And not so much for Facebook.
  • We rated the queen’s C.U.N.T.s. Thorgy, Bob, Acid and Kim are doing well.
  • The people are now IN LOVE with Thorgy.
  • Cynthia got an elimination spike.
  • Everyone knows Acid is evil but talented.
  • Derrick Barry isn’t going to last much longer. Her edit has been skewing negative (but not in an EVIL way) and she is flatlining on social media followers. This makes me sad because Oops I Did It Again is my go-to karaoke song and I feel a sisterly tie to Derrick.

Correlation Station!

Last week, /u/verbiwhore posed the question, “Is there a relationship between positive edit and social media following?” Of course I read that as, “Does this social media data mean ANYTHING?!?!” because I wonder that myself. Luckily for our little whore, I sat on a plane for many hours this week. How do I spend my vacation? Excel! (And reading Carrie Brownstein’s autobiography during takeoff and landing.)

I not only looked at positive edit, but I also looked at overall edit (positive minus negative) and negative edit. There is no (inverse) correlation between negative edit and social media following. But a queen’s Positive Edit and Overall Edit do appear to predict the acquisition of new followers on Instagram and Twitter for Episode 3, in which the R-squared values lie somewhere between 0.75 and 0.84 (AKA, strong correlation).

I’ll keep running these numbers to see if it’s a better predictor as time goes on, and the stories are more refined. Episode 1 is a chaotic meet-n-greet, and we don’t get a strong edit for much of anyone.

Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 2.25.09 AM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 2.25.19 AM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 2.25.30 AM

 

Positive Edit Ep 1-3 Overall Edit Ep 1-3 Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 2.37.07 AM
New Twitter Ep 1-3

C.U.N.T. Scores

I ran a poll on Reddit to rate the queens’ Charisma, Uniqueness, Nerve and Talent. I’ve included standard deviation to illustrate how much variance there was in voting. Not surprising, people tended to agree about Thorgy, Bob, Kim (lower standard deviation) and there was more variation around Acid (slightly higher standard deviation). I’d like to run it again in a few episodes to see how scoring changes as we get to know the queens.

For what it’s worth, Violet didn’t do as well as Trixie and Katya in last year’s C.U.N.T. poll.

  • Charisma winners: Thorgy, Bob, and Chi Chi
  • Uniqueness winners: Acid, Kim, Thorgy
  • Nerve winners: Acid, Bob, Thorgy
  • Talent winners: Thorgy, Bob, Acid
  • Overall C.U.N.T. Score: Thorgy, Bob, Acid

Charisma

Thorgy, Bob and Chi Chi were voted to have the most charisma. There’s also a fairly low standard deviation for those three, indicating that most people converge on a similar score. Dax, Laila, Derrick and Naysha scored lower than the other queens.

The most disagreement is on Acid Betty, who scored 6.5, with a standard deviation of 2.2.

Charisma Graph

Charisma Numbers

Uniqueness

Acid Betty, Kim Chi, and Thorgy received high uniqueness scores. There is a strong agreement from voters that they deserve a high score, especially Kim Chi with 1.1 standard deviation. Acid Betty has a slightly higher score than Kim, but also has more variance. Laila, Derrick and Naysha are low on uniqueness, but there is a higher standard deviation for Laila and Derrick (2.3).

Uniqueness Graph Uniqueness Numbers

Nerve

Acid and Bob received high nerve scores, with more agreement among voters on Bob. (What? Acid is polarizing?!) Naysha, Laila and Dax have low nerve scores.

There was a stronger disagreement about Laila’s score. Her average score is low (5.3), but the standard deviation is 2.3. I imagine some were rating her nerve (as in confidence), and others were rating her nerve (as in roll around on the floor with a whip).

Nerve Graph

Nerve Numbers

Talent

Thorgy and Bob are highest in the talent category. Acid is in third place, but there is a higher variance / standard deviation for Acid (1.8 compared to 1.2 or 1.3). Naysha, Laila and Dax have low talent scores.

There is a higher standard deviation in the talent category. I wonder if this will change when we see more challenges.

Talent Graph Talent Numbers

Total C.U.N.T. Score

Thorgy, Bob, Acid, Kim… Maybe a little Chi Chi.

TNUC Graph

TNUC NumbersScreen Time

Are you still reading? This week’s post just feels ridiculously long. Maybe because it’s 3am here.

  • Bob and Thorgy are closely tied for best edit. About 80% of respondents said they got the most positive edit.
  • Acid, Robbie, Cynthia, and Derrick got the most negative edit this week.
  • I didn’t notice Derrick’s edit to be so negative, but maybe she drives you crazy.

Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 2.58.23 AM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 2.58.30 AM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 2.58.42 AM

Story Arc

While we’re at it, let’s take a look at a handful of queens’ story arcs. I’ll keep adding these as the season progresses. In my fantasy world, we would rate the queens’ story arcs from past seasons and then define patterns, such as redemption arc and black horse. Did I mention it’s late?

Thorgy started silent/neutral and got WAY more positive.

Thorgy Story Arc

As Thorgy got more positive, Acid got more negative.

Acid Story Arc

Chi Chi had a spike when she won a challenge.

Chi Chi Story Arc

Naomi and Naysha have been kind of invisible.

Naomi Story Arc Naysha Story Arc

Instagram

  • Kim still holds a strong lead, with 179K followers on Instagram. When you look at the chart, you’ll see how far behind the rest of the queens are.
  • Bob has 96K followers, with 21% growth.
  • Derrick has 69K followers, with 8% growth. Derrick’s growth continues to slow.
  • Cynthia has an elimination spike. She typically has gained 4K followers per episode, and gained 7.7K on Instagram (48%). She jumped from #11 to #9 in the rankings.
  • Robbie and Naysha moved down to #10 and #11, respectively.
  • Chi Chi gained increased her following by 69% this week. Her growth has been exponential, with 2.3K followers after episode 1, 5K after episode 2, and now 8K after episode 3. Still, Bob, Thorgy and Kim have gotten between 17K and 27K new followers in a week.
  • Thorgy and Acid traded rankings. Thorgy is now #5, and Acid is now #6.

Instagram Bar Graph

Instagram Raw Numbers

Instagram Rank

Instagram Increase Number Instagram Increase Percentage
Twitter

  • Kim Chi has a strong lead with 24.6K followers. She acquired 3.9K new fans, at 19% growth.
  • Bob holds 2nd place, with 19.2K followers, +3.9K, 25% increase.
  • Thorgy moved from #6 to #3 this week, leaping past Derrick, Naomi and Laila. She gained 4,000 new followers (48%).
  • Cynthia had an elimination spike. She gained 2K new followers, compared to about 1K in the last two episodes.
  • Naysha came back, and got 900 new followers, compared to 700 from last week. This is consistent with her episode 1 results.
  • Robbie gained more new Twitter followers than usual, with 1000, rather than about 600.

Twitter Bar Graph

Twitter Raw Numbers

Twitter Rank

Twitter Increase Numbers Twitter Increase Percentage
Facebook

  • Derrick still holds a strong lead with 41K followers. She only increased followers by 6% this week.
  • Acid holds 2nd place, slightly ahead of Kim Chi. Both Acid and Kim gained about 1.8K new followers (11%).
  • Thorgy jumped from spot #8 to spot #6 this week, gaining 4.2K new followers (68%).
  • Naomi consistently gains ~2K followers each week, and has held 5th place since the week before launch.

Facebook Bar Graph

Facebook Raw Numbers

Facebook Rank

Facebook Increase Number Facebook Increase Percentage

 

Leave a Reply