Season 8, Episode 4: New Wave Queens

DerrickIsNotThatInnocent

TL;DR

  • If Derrick isn’t eliminated after Snatch Game, I’ll eat my head stack. Derrick’s edit gets more negative every week, and she dropped her rank on Instagram and Twitter.
  • Chi Chi gets a great edit, and her social media rank is growing but still relatively low. It may just be social media recommendation algorithms working against her, but it may just be that the average, non-obsessed viewer isn’t that into Chi Chi.
  • The producers built tension into the storylines this week. Bob got a negative edit, Robbie got a positive one. The fans still love Bob but Robbie… not so much. (I love you, Robbie. I saw you at R Place and you and Shangela were HI-larious.)
  • Naysha got an elimination spike on Facebook.
  • Thorgy and Kim are doing great as usual.
  • Taking into account popularity AND edit, I think the top five will be Kim, Thorgy, Bob, Acid, and Chi Chi. THIS is rocket science, people.

The Edit

It’s opposite week! Robbie and Acid got their first overall positive edit this week! Bob and Chi Chi got their overall first negative edit this week. To be clear, Robbie knocked it out of the ballpark with WAAAAY more positive than negative votes, and Acid finally got a few more positive than negative votes. On the negative side, Bob got WAAAAAY more negative votes than positive votes, and Chi Chi just skewed negative.

Either way, when it’s opposite week, the correlations between Positive Edit and fan growth don’t work out at all. Bob and Chi Chi still got a lot more new fans than Robbie. In the production world, they probably don’t call it “opposite week.” I think they call that “tension.”

However, Acid did particularly well with a slightly positive edit. I think they call that “redemption.”

In regular news, Derrick keeps going downhill.

Positive Edit

Negative Edit

Overall Edit

 

Individual Story Arcs

Derrick Story Arc
Derrick is about to be eliminated.
Bob Story Arc
This is what happens to you when a judge says, “Write a song using Rock Lobster instrumental WITHOUT sounding like Rock Lobster.” How dare she argue with THAT?
Robbie Story Arc
Spitting at the audience + defying expectations = WIN!
Acid Betty Story Arc
Acid stood next to Bob and looked slightly better than usual.
Chi Chi Story Arc
You win a challenge in Episode 2, and then don’t help your team in Episode 4. Then you make people feel sorry for you and Michelle calls BS.
Kim Chi Story Arc
Everybody loves Kim Chi! No tension here.
Thorgy Story Arc
Oh my God, that shawl is so cute.
Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 5.59.26 AM
Naysha skews negative, but… filler.
Naomi Story Arc
At least she’s hot and nice.

Correlations

By the way, my correlation numbers were off last week. (I should go fix that if I weren’t lazy. And p-values. Soon?) However, there is still a strong correlation between Positive/Overall Edit and fan growth during Episode 3, but definitely not during Episode 4. Because Episode 4 was opposite week.

Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 6.06.15 AM Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 6.06.27 AM

Facebook… who cares?

Instagram

  • Kim Chi will be hard to beat. She has 203K followers, and gained the most new followers last week (+24K, 13%). The “you should follow” algorithm is working well.
  • Bob the Drag Queen is holding on to second place, with 114K followers (+17.9K, 19%).
  • Thorgy jumped from #5 to #3, bumping down Derrick to #5. She gained the second highest number of followers this week (+19.6K, 31%).
  • Chi Chi jumped from #12 to #10, finally getting a little bit of consistency with her edit. She got 7,200 new followers (+36%).
  • Robbie gained more followers than usual (3.8K, compared to 3.2K), but the win didn’t help a lot.
  • Naysha didn’t get an elimination spike. Eliminate me once, shame on Ru. Eliminate me twice, shame on Naysha.

Instagram Bar Graph

Instagram Raw Numbers

Instagram Rank Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 6.22.32 AMScreen Shot 2016-04-02 at 6.22.42 AM
Twitter

  • Kim wins, with 27.7K followers (+3.1K, 13%). Thorgy also gained 3.1K followers (25%).
  • Bob’s in second place (22.4K), but gained a few more followers than Kim and Thorgy (3.2K, 17%).
  • Naomi moved from #5 to #4, pushing Derrick down to #5.
  • Chi Chi moved from #10 to #9, gaining 1.9K new followers (31%).
  • Robbie has a low ranking. Anyone wanna place bets on how long she will stick around?

Twitter Bar Graph

Twitter Raw Numbers

Twitter Rank

Twitter Increase Numbers Twitter Increase Percentage

Facebook

  • Derrick is still winning Facebook. No one has been able to get close to her 43K followers. To be clear, she had 17K followers last summer, 23K followers the night before the S8 queens were announced, and 32K before Episode 1. Britney carried her very far, but… oh whatever. I’m tired of talking about Derrick. Does anyone remember Britney’s song Email My Heart? Hahaha!
  • Acid is second place. What is it about Facebook? The only interesting math-y thing that I think is happening here is that it is more of a broad audience, whereas Instagram skews younger, according to Pew Research. There’s probably an algorithm in there, too.
  • Kim, Bob and Naomi are #3, #4, and #5, respectively.
  • Naysha got an elimination spike on Facebook, with 2.7K new followers compared to her usual 500-1000.

Facebook Bar Graph

Facebook Raw Numbers

Facebook Rank

Facebook Increase Numbers Facebook Increase Percentage