It’s the Snatch Game!
Big news! Acid was eliminated, which shocked the world. She had a high challenge score and a lot of screen time (albeit negative). We expected the villain to stick around to the bitter end. Ru had to eliminate a NYC queen, so cue the sad trombone for Acid. In this week’s screen time poll, the majority of our 394 friends (89%) said Acid was a good trip. She also got elimination spikes on social media. Hugs all around.
According to the numbers, this show is about Kim, Bob and Thorgy. They have the highest score in the challenges (even without a win for Thorgy), they are the most popular on Instagram and Twitter, and their story arcs are strong and positive.
Naomi, Derrick and Robbie are set up to be eliminated soon. Robbie has low challenge scores (even with one win), a mostly negative story arc, and low social media following. Derrick has medium-high challenge scores, but a negative story arc and medium social media following. Naomi has low challenge scores, an invisible story arc, but has medium-high popularity on social media.
What about Chi Chi? Her challenge score is surprisingly low, which doesn’t bode well. At the same time, Ru and the producers are weaving an American Dream story by juxtaposing the poor Shreveport queen and the rich NYC queens. Chi Chi’s story arc is mostly positive, and the social media numbers show that some people like her, but the general public isn’t eating it up. Given Chi Chi’s performance in the challenges, I don’t think Ru wants to crown her, but does want her to last a long time and earn top dollar for her live drag performances.
Last year, Violet scored well in the challenges, but Pearl was much more popular. (See final numbers here.) I learned that:
- Challenges are most important in determining the winner
- Popularity tips the scale
At this stage of the game, we can start looking at the scores to see who will win, or at least be in the top three. I have two scoring systems. One is the AnalRPDR scoring system, in which wins have a weight of +3, high has a weight of +1, and bottom 2 has a weight of -2. I also have a “Safe Sucks” score, which is based on the hypothesis that, if you don’t get a critique from Ru, you won’t be able to tailor your performance and succeed in the next challenge. You also don’t get as much screen time. In the Safe Sucks scoring system, queens get +0.5 if they are anything but safe (including bottom 2).
- With both AnalRPDR and Safe Sucks scores, Bob, Kim, and Thorgy are positioned for top three.
- The producers have focused on Thorgy’s complaint that she hasn’t won a challenge yet. If she wins the next challenge, and if Bob and Kim are placed high, she will be in second place.
- Acid places fourth, but has been eliminated. This also explains why people are shocked that Betty left.
- Derrick has a higher score than Chi Chi.
- Robbie and Naomi have extremely low scores. Robbie has had one win, but has been mostly low and in the bottom two. Naomi has only been high once, and has been in the bottom two.
See the end of this post for how the edit is scored.*
- Bob and Thorgy got the most votes for positive edit (69% and 63.7%, respectively).
- Acid had a mixed edit, with a lot of votes for both positive (35%) and negative (46.2%).
- Naomi and Robbie got voted for the most negative edit this week (59.6% and 60.4%, respectively).
- Thorgy and Kim Chi have always had a positive edit, setting either of them up for Miss Congeniality.
- Bob and Chi Chi have gotten mostly positive edits, with only one negative week. Given their positive-with-a-dash-of-drama edit, I think they are likely to be on the top three.
- Acid, Robbie, and Derrick have gotten almost entirely negative edits, and are unlikely to be top three or Miss Congeniality. But you knew that.
- Naomi has been mostly neutral (slightly positive) and got a strongly negative edit this week (-59.6).
- Kimmy Jong-Un is STILL annihilating the rest of the queens with her weapons of ass destruction. She has almost 100K more followers than Bob, who is in second place. Kim has 221K, and Bob has 130K.
- Chi Chi moved up in rank, from #10 to #8. She also has the highest relative increase in followers (34%).
- Robbie moved up in rank, from #11 to #10.
- Eliminated queens Dax and Cynthia moved down in rank, as is typical at this stage.
- Acid got a small elimination spike, with 9.1K more followers, compared to 7.8K in weeks past.
- Everyone’s relative increase is slowing down.
- Kim has the most followers on Twitter (30.4K), followed closely by Bob (25.5K). Bob gained more followers than Kim this week, with +3.1K compared to Kim’s +2.7K.
- Thorgy gained the same number of followers as Kim (+2.7K), but is in third place with 18.2K followers.
- Naomi is in fourth place (16.4K), Derrick is in fifth place (14K), Chi Chi is in 8th place (9.6K) and Robbie is in 10th place (8K).
- Acid had an elimination spike, with the highest relative increase (23%), and 2.5K new followers compared to 1.7K in weeks past. She also jumped from #7 to #6, pushing Laila down to #7.
- Derrick is still #1 on Facebook. No one is going to catch up with her by the finale.
- You can just eyeball the chart below and see that Bob and Thorgy have seen the most growth on Facebook.
- Bob just ousted Kim for spot #3. They are neck-and-neck now. Bob has 19.8K followers, and Kim has 19.4K.
- Acid Betty had an elimination spike, gathering 3.2K new followers, compared to 1.9K in weeks past.
- Naomi is more popular than Thorgy, but Thorgy gains more new followers than Naomi every week. Thorgy probably won’t pass Naomi next week, but will easily pass her if Naomi gets eliminated.
*Edit Calculation: Each week, I run a poll on Reddit and my blog. I ask, “Who got the most positive edit? (pick three)” and “Who got the most negative edit? (pick three).” The score is based on the percentage of people that voted for that queen. For example, if 70% of voters said Thorgy had a positive edit, her positive edit score is 70. If 10% of voters said she had a negative edit, her negative edit score is -10. Her overall edit would then be +60.