Hey lollipop kids! Welcome to another week of data analysis! With mixed emotions, we are in the home stretch. I’m excited to see who our next queen will be, and sad to see such awesome queens disappear each week.
What Would RuPaul Do?
In this week’s poll (n=397), I asked the fans (mostly Redditors, a sprinkle of Twitter and blog followers) who Ru would pick to be America’s Next Drag Superstar. Answer: Bob. They were right last year.
The results above are pretty consistent with the challenge scores. No matter how you score it, Bob has the highest challenge score, and 53% of our fans voted for her to get the crown. She was followed by Kim Chi (21%), who has a score very close to Bob’s, and then Thorgy (15%), who has a good, but not great challenge score since she has no wins.
If Kim wins a challenge next week, she will be one small step ahead of Bob, even if Bob is high. Looking at the social media numbers below, Kim is more popular than Bob, and could win the hashtag campaign if she is in the top 3. (As we learned last year, winning the hashtag campaign does not necessarily earn you the crown.) To add a little tension, if Thorgy or Naomi wins next week, they could be very close to the Bob/Kim score.
Speaking of Naomi…
Look at Naomi’s story arc! For the first four episodes, we were like, “filler, filler, filler, filler…” and then all of a sudden she went from bottom two to winner! Nothing like a dark horse story arc to add some tension. To be clear, she has been popular on social media, and got a good amount of screen time in the first few episodes. (Weren’t people calculating this? Send me some numbers if you got ’em!)
The Legend of Acid
I talk about elimination spikes now and then. If queens get eliminated, and IF the people think it’s unfair, the queen gets a bigger than usual following on social media. Acid got a little boost last week. BUT for the first time since I’ve been doing this (a whopping 2.5 years), an eliminated queen (Acid) moved up in rank over a week AFTER an elimination, pushing down a queen currently on the show (Derrick). It happened on Twitter. Derrick, for 23 days I’ve been dying to tell you what I think of you. But, being a Christian woman, I can’t say it!
After RuPaul sent Robbie back to The Emerald City of Seattle, /u/gmccl and I posed the question, “What is Robbie’s Greatest Strength: heart, brains, or courage? Robbie is the “kindest queen you’ll ever meet” (Heart!), had some snappy commentary (Brains!), and lip synced on roller skate (Courage!). While she can be shady, 53% of respondents (n=397) said it’s her HEART. Oh, big hugs to you, Robbie!! A heart is shown not by how much you love, but by how much you are loved by others.
- Naomi’s win gave her a much more positive score than she has had all season.
- This week, the positive and negative scores align more with how they did in the challenge, and less on attitude, fighting, or family back story. Therefore, Naomi, Kim and Thorgy got positive edits, and Derrick, Chi Chi, Robbie and Bob got negative edits.
- Thorgy did worse than usual, probably because she is losing her sparkle while she whines about Bob.
- Kim is in the lead (235K), and gained the most followers. However, she only gained 14K this week, compared to 18K and 24K in past weeks.
- Bob is in 2nd place (143K), and gained 13K followers, just behind Kim’s growth.
- Let’s face it, Kim is more fun to look at than Bob.
- Naomi is in 4th place, but gained more followers than usual this week (13.3K compared to 11-12K in past weeks).
- Chi Chi had the highest relative growth this week (18%), but only gained 6,400 new followers. I don’t see her shooting up to top 5 on Instagram.
- The ranks remain unchanged this week.
- Acid jumped to #5, pushing Derrick down to spot #6. Acid gained 1,300 new followers. Derrick gained 700. Oh Derrick, you have no power here! Begone, before somebody drops a house on you, too!
- Kim is still in the lead with 32.4K. Bob is slowly gaining on her, but probably won’t pass her in the next few weeks if trends continue.
- Naomi had the highest relative increase (12%), but nobody’s growth is very high at this time.
- Rank remains unchanged, but Bob will probably beat out Acid Betty in about 3-4 weeks.
- Chi Chi had the highest relative increase (15%), but has only gained 700 followers this week.
- Everyone’s relative increase is slowing down. We have heard everyone’s story and fans have decided who they like and want to follow.
I seriously thought Derrick was going home, like, four weeks ago. Look at that edit! Derrick, there’s no place like home.
Thorgy is starting to get stressed and lose her Katya-like magic. While she skews positive, she got a less positive score this week.
Robbie had a little spike with the Chicken Wings, but mostly a negative edit, and skipped on home.
Kim’s been positive. Top 3 material, but don’t make her dance.
Chi Chi is sometimes neutral, and sometimes controversial. She gets lots of attention, but her social media shows she isn’t so popular. I think she peaked early.
Bob’s and Chi Chi’s story arcs look very similar, with Bob having more dramatic positives and negatives. She also skews more positive.
Stay tuned for /u/gmccl’s infographic. Coming soon!