My prediction has ignited a fiery debate on Reddit. This is beautiful.
It’s gonna be Kim. I was wrong last week when I predicted Bob. Here’s why:
One caveat is that Kim has won two challenges, and Bob has won three challenges. Kim’s advantage is that she has been ranked high more often than Bob, and has not been in the bottom two.
To see a history of scores for the top three queens, read this link.
I used Rite Tag for Twitter, and a simple hashtag search for Instagram. Thus the timeline for Twitter stats and the histogram for Instagram.
Now that Chi Chi has been eliminated, I do wonder if she could be Miss Congeniality. I’m still predicting it will be Thorgy, but here’s why I’m torn:
Cynthia was actually congenial, but the sash has never been given to someone eliminated so early. The general public doesn’t have a good enough memory to vote for queens eliminated in episode three. And if you’re going to compare apples to apples, Thorgy was pretty sweet in episode three as well.
I know you’re all drooling over Amy Sedaris. You should. Now go pick up a copy of Me Talk Pretty One Day , by David Sedaris, buy some Depends, and pee yourself. Better yet, get the audio book.
Oh my God who is going to win this thing? (and other first world problems)
With Kim Chi’s win this week, her challenge score (both the AnalRPDR and the Safe Sucks Score) is higher than Bob’s (10.5 vs. 9.5). Since she had to lip sync, Bob’s score went from 11 to 9.5 on the Safe Sucks Score, and Kim Chi’s went from 7 to 10.5 with her win. If Kim Chi gets eliminated this week, she will easily be Miss Congeniality and Bob will win. If Naomi or Chi Chi get eliminated, the competition for the crown will be stiffer and more exciting, especially since Kim is more popular than Bob. I’m predicting that both Kim and Bob stay this week.
If Bob gets eliminated… oh who are we kidding? Bob is going to win this thing. We got to see vulnerability this week, which checks off the last box.
At this point in time, Naomi has a higher score than Chi Chi (3.5 vs. 2.5), but both scores are still lower than Derrick’s (6) and Thorgy’s (4.5), and Chi Chi’s score is lower than Acid’s (3).
In terms of popularity, Naomi has more followers than Chi Chi. I looked at season growth this week, and Naomi consistently ranks 4th on all three social media channels (just behind Kim, Bob, and Thorgy).
Top three: Kim, Bob and Naomi.
If I didn’t have a job or a band (sponsored by iTunes) or a hot wife, I might sit around and figure out a ratio like Story line: Challenge Score, because Chi Chi’s is really freakin’ high. Don’t be fooled, people! She is not going to win this thing.
Miss Congeniality Poll
When I posed the question, “Who do you think Miss Congeniality will be?” I knew that devout followers would take into account who they think will be eliminated in episode 4. Assuming everyone spent that much time thinking before checking a random box, it looks like (a few) more people think Chi Chi will get sent home (41 votes), followed by Kim (24 votes), and last by Naomi (9 votes). Of course, this could also mean that people forgot about the episode 9 elimination and just clicked “Thorgy” and moved on.
Miss Congeniality is usually the most recent (nice) queen to be eliminated. Oh, who’s kidding? It’s a popularity contest. DeLa (not Darienne or Joslyn), Katya (not Kennedy or Trixie), and Ivy (not Alyssa, Coco, or Detox because Jesus, what a shit show). I wasn’t sure if the producers wanted Thorgy for Miss Congeniality given her latest edit, and that edit is the only thing that makes me think Naomi or Kim will be eliminated in episode 9.
When you look at social media following as a proxy for popularity, Thorgy has the third highest season growth on Instagram and Twitter, and second highest growth on Facebook. She is popular, and that sash is hers. Forty-one percent of poll respondents think it’s going to Thorgy, and the nerdy, obsessive hive-mind of (mostly) Redditors is usually right.
Lord have mercy, if you didn’t know Derrick was getting sent home this week, you must really like Britney. Or, maybe you’ve endured so many episodes of Derrick being safe that you started to project a gray cloud over her face whenever she talked.
This week, I only let people vote for one queen instead of three. In terms of numbers, this made Kim stand out, and Chi Chi and Naomi fade into the distance a little.