Here we are, at Season 9, Episode 2, and I have no idea who is going to win. Where is the Bianca? Where is the Bob? We don’t have a clear winner (obviously bold, smart, confident, multitalented the moment she enters the work room) in Season 9, so this is a little more interesting.
While you’re sitting here, tell me who you think will win with this poll.
- The heavy hitters are Nina, Shea, Sasha, and Valentina.
- Nina Bonina is the poo, so take a big whiff. She has the highest challenge score, high C.U.N.T. scores, and has strong growth in her social media following, even when she was safe this week.
- Valentina is doing great this week. Because she won. Her C.U.N.T. scores have increased in every category. She has seen a 46% increase in Instagram followers, and 50% increase in Twitter followers.
- And then there’s Farrah Moan. Her challenge score is a nice, neat ZERO. Her C.U.N.T. score is low to medium. But she has the most followers on Instagram, and the second most followers on Twitter (closely behind Cynthia Lee Fontaine.) What’s up with that? Why oh why is she…
Right now, the Challenge Score can only give us some hints as to who the winner is. There are some no-duhs: Nina and Valentina are high, Jaymes and Kimora are low. The most interesting thing here is that Eureka, Shea Coulee, Sasha Velour, and Trinity are scoring well since they have all been high.
If you jump over to Predict a Sister’s website, that stats queen says that Nina has a 14.8% chance of winning, and Valentina has a 13.5% chance. If you want a quick and dirty blog to follow on the real statistics, flag her site. If you want to sit around and gossip with your sisters, and use some numbers to justify your shade, come right down here and sit under my tree.
- Nina Bonina and Valentina both have an AnalRPDR score of 3.
- Eureka, Sasha, Shea, and Trinity have a score of 1.
- Kimora is -2, and Jaymes is -3.
- Everyone else has a 0 score.
Since we are starting with a fresh, new season, and since some of you might be watching RPDR for the first time (oh jesus, who the hell are you?) I’ll explain some of the rationale for looking at social media followers. When someone gets a good edit, they tend to get a spike in followers. When someone gets eliminated, they tend to get a spike, albeit smaller, in followers (“Oh, the injustice! I still love you and won’t forget you, Tempest DuJour!”) When a queen is hateful or dull, they tend to hang out in the cesspool of filler queens. Especially in the beginning of the season, fan growth is a good reflection of the edit.
BUT… This graph puts it all into perspective. The real winner of RuPaul’s Drag Race is…
I look at the number of followers, the amount of growth week-over week, and their ranking. Every so often someone tells me that red/pink should mean their rank is lower, and blue means their rank should be higher. However, this show takes place in a pink hamster cage with a bunch of drag queens, so this is my response to your conventions:
- Farrah Moan is killing it. Look at that graph! It’s like a Miss Fame and Pearl, all rolled into one!
- Aja is in second place with 151K followers, but Valentina is doing a sneak attack on Farrah and Aja. Valentina has the most new followers this week (41.7K, +46%).
- Nina Bonina continues to see a YUGE increase in followers. She gained 26.9K new followers this week (+39%). She has very good chances of rising to the top of the heap.
- Cynthia Lee Fontaine is in 5th place, neck and neck with Shea Coulee, Nina Bonina, and Sasha Velour.
- Jaymes Mansfield got a small elimination spike: 28% increase (as opposed to 11% last week).
- Cynthia Lee is topping all of them, with 26.6K followers. Pretty much everyone has gone down in rank because of this.
- Farrah is a close second, with 25.8K.
“Second place! How’s it feel, Farrah?”
“It feels like first!”
- Valentina and Jaymes are the only queens that have gone up in rank. Valentina moved from #6 to #4, and gained the most new followers (6.3K, +50%). Jaymes moved from spot #11 to #10, and gained 3K new followers (+33%).
- Charlie Hides is in third place, but doesn’t show a lot of growth (9%). In fact, it’s the smallest growth of any queen. (Grrrl, stop talking about your age! You’re cute.)
- Nina Bonina has been showing impressive growth. She is up 28% this week, and up 36% last week. However, she is only ranked #8.
Predict a Sister was kind enough to share results from her C.U.N.T. survey with me. Here they all, in all their glory. It includes results from the pre-season, episode 1, and episode 2.
- Nina Bonina has consistently placed high on Charisma, but bumped to 2nd place by Valentina after the cheerleading episode.
- Nina Bonina and Sasha Velour lead in the Uniqueness category. I’m very excited to see an episode that challenges them to be artistic and avant garde. (I love you, Sasha.)
- Nina, Sasha, and Shea have high Nerve scores.
- Nina, Sasha and Shea have historically held a lead in the Talent category, but Valentina bumped Sasha and Shea this week.
- While Farrah Moan and Aja are popular, their C.U.N.T. scores are low to medium.