Here we are, Squirrelfriends! It’s time to announce our queen.
If I had to place a bet, I would say that Sasha is going to win. I’m curling my toes as I say that, because she has only won two challenges and both wins were shared with Shea. She placed high SIX times, which gives her a high challenge score, but she did not win anything by herself. Ru handed the win to Shea FOUR times. Fans have been predicting Shea’s win since at least episode 6. While Shea isn’t as popular, Ru has ranked her higher than Sasha throughout the challenges.
Why do I predict Sasha? Because you predicted Sasha. Fans (mostly redditors) think that Sasha will win. That’s the only set of numbers that predicted Bob last year. Kim had a slightly higher challenge score, and more fans. But Bob won, and fans “knew” she was going to win.
What else? Sasha is more popular than Shea. She is winning the hashtag votes (#teamsasha) by a landslide. She has the highest following of anyone on Twitter, and has the highest of the top 4 on Instagram.
Shout out to Trinity. She is playing out her dark horse narrative well. Of the fans, 32% want her to win, even though only 2% think she will win.
While I’m at it, I thought I would send an extra special thank you to Tiago in Brasil, who did a sweet write up on this nerdy data analyst blog!
Fan (Mostly Redditor) Votes
Last year, the ONLY numbers that pointed to Bob’s win were redditor votes. This year, 954 out of 1217 nerdy queers (78%) think that Sasha is going to win. I also like to ask fans who they WANT to win. There is a fairly even split between Sasha and Trinity, with a slight lead for Sasha. Shea is a close THIRD.
Let’s compare this to episode 6, right after Snatch Game. 83% of fans thought Shea would win, with Valentina and Sasha in the running. After that same episode, there were more fans of Sasha, as the majority (34%) wanted her to win.
If we go all the way back to episode 3, most (34%) thought Valentina would win, followed closely by Shea (26%).
“What?” you say? “Last week you said that Sasha had 65K mentions in the last WEEK. What gives?”
I wonder if it’s a bug in the system. I use Talkwalker to gather hashtag numbers, and something is strange. If you look at the 7 day data slice that I took last week, it clearly shows that Sasha has 64.8K mentions.
And if you look at the numbers that Talkwalker gives me this week (for the last 30 DAYS), it only says she has been mentioned 17.9K times.
Either there is data that I don’t get when I use the free version, or there is a bug in their system. You get what you pay for. Shady whores.
- Valentina is still the most popular, and has almost reached half a million fans. FAN FAVORITE!
- There are no changes in ranking.
- Farrah is still in second place with 365K followers, followed very closely by Sasha (345K).
- After the reunited episode, Sasha and Shea gained the largest following, and Valentina still did well.
- Sasha: 35K
- Shea: 25K
- Aja: 22K
- Valentina: 19K
- Peppermint: 18K
- Trinity: 18K
- Farrah: 15K
- Sasha has either purchased some Trumpian twitterbotic followers, or she is gaining popularity in this home stretch. She still holds her recently acquired 1st place ranking (78K), and gained 12K followers this week.
- Valentina still holds second place (67.9K) but only gained 5.1K followers.
- Peppermint jumped from 8th place to 6th place, ousting Nina and Cynthia.
- After the reunited episode, queens gained the following number of followers:
- Sasha: 12K
- Shea: 7.6K
- Trinity: 6.2K
- Peppermint: 6.1K
- Farrah: 6K