Season 8… A Tad Late

Hey. It’s been awhile.

I have to admit I fell into a mini depression over my wrong prediction for Season 8. I know I shouldn’t take my bizarre hobby so seriously but I guess I do, and that’s why I haven’t written in many months. I love it when people call me the “Nate Silver of RuPaul’s Drag Race.” I love it when I see thousands of views every time I wrote a post. I love redditors saying weird shit like “She is hard at work serving statistical fish for your nerves!” and “Wow seeing all these numbers makes me want to feel my oats.”

Venn Diagram analrpdr

Ru would tell me to battle my inner saboteur, so here goes.

It seems fitting that, the year Nate Silver is baffled by the Presidential election, my numbers don’t predict the winner of RuPaul’s Drag Race. (Or maybe Ru is reading my blog and f***ing with me. #dreamcometrue) Kim was more popular on social media and in the hashtag campaign, and she had a (slightly) higher challenge score than Bob. Cynthia did not have a strong following due to her early elimination, she didn’t have a good edit score, but still won Miss Congeniality. So what CAN explain the wins?

On a gut level, many people felt like Bob was going to win. Even from the beginning, people drooled over her Meet the Queens video. So let’s see if there are any numbers that would have pointed to Bob’s win.

Subreddit /r/rupaulsdragrace

First, Redditors’ predictions. Yes, my survey results mostly come from rupaulsdragrace subreddit, and then people comment ON THE SUBREDDIT saying, “The subreddit is so BIASED,” but these fans are the ones paying the most attention. Many of them (us) watch every episode 2-3 times. They argue about the edits. They analyze RuPaul’s Drag Race like it’s a classic novel. They listen to What’s the Tee and Feast of Fun and follow Bland Canyon and dragaholic and dragofficial and whatever nincompoop imgur account with a Pearl drawing.

Right after Episode 6, 53% of the fans predicted that Bob would win. 21% predicted Kim. They were right (except for Naomi Smalls, of course).WWRPD

C.U.N.T. Score

After episode 3, I asked the fans to rate the queens’ C.U.N.T.s. Since Thorgy was eliminated, Bob was essentially in first place.

  • Bob had higher Charisma, Nerve and Talent than Kim. Bob wins.
  • Kim had higher Uniqueness than Bob.

Kim scored particularly low on charisma and nerve. Bob has those two traits in spades.

Total C.U.N.T. Score

TNUC Numbers

Charisma Score

Charisma Numbers

Uniqueness Score

Uniqueness Numbers

Nerve Score

Nerve Numbers

Talent Score

Talent Numbers

Other Non-Numerical Stuff, AKA the What-Not Shelf

I have some other theories about the lineup of winners from RuPaul’s harem:

  1. Smart: They are all really smart. Like, strategic smart. They have an original approach to the challenges. If a challenge is in one of their weaker areas, they find a creative way to work around it.
  2. Different: They can’t be too similar to last year’s winner. Chad Michaels (fashion queen) couldn’t follow Raja, and Ginger Minj (comedy queen) couldn’t follow Bianca.
  3. Similar to Ru: The winners need to be a little bit like RuPaul.

By the way, I used to think that they need to sing, dance, act, and do comedy but then Violet proved me wrong. Violet is amazing at what she does (fashion and movement), but mostly just strategic and smart in her weakness areas (acting, comedy). (See rule #1.)

Bob vs. Kim on the What-Not Shelf

  1. Smart: Bob and Kim on equal footing. Bob and Kim are both smart. Bob’s performance in every challenge was professional, snappy, and quick. Kim handled every challenge with a sly and subversive sense of humor, and capitalized on her weaknesses (e.g. playing the geeky kid in the Bitch Perfect challenge).
  2. Different: Kim wins. Kim is like no other winner in Ru’s harem. She grew up in Korea, and her story can inspire other little boys who have immigrated from countries less supportive of drag and queers. Unlike pretty much every single queen in RPDR, she STILL doesn’t come out to her mother. The biggest ding on Kim in this category is that her fashion is her greatest strength and she couldn’t follow Violet Chachki. On the other hand, Bob feels like a hybrid of Jinkx (theatrical, multitalented) and Bianca (outspoken, bawdy). I love Bob, but in this category her persona doesn’t represent a new segment of drag.
  3. Similar to Ru: Bob wins. Like RuPaul, Bob is extroverted, political, and multi-talented. Her personality feels very similar to Ru’s. Kim’s fashion wowed Ru, but her personality might not be what Ru is looking for when she is sending out her representatives.

That last point, that Kim is too different from Ru, is covered beautifully in this article in The Atlantic. Kim is not going to come out to her mother as a drag queen, even though it’s the Western hero’s narrative that RuPaul’s Drag Race lauds. Refusing to come out to her mother illustrates Kim’s tenacity and individuality, and resonates with queers who know that coming out to their parents through Western rituals isn’t always the best choice.

That’s not the story Ru wants to tell. Bob wins.

Miss Congeniality

While 41% of voters thought that Thorgy would be MC, and only 35% thought Cucu would get the sash, it was obvious from threads like this that Cynthia had stolen the redditors’ hearts. I wonder what percentage of MC voters are hardcore fans, aka RPDR subredditors.

Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 4.28.29 PM

Looking at the story arc, it was almost like they set up Thorgy to fail the MC competition. We loved her, we trusted her, and then she totally betrayed us when she started to fail.

Thorgy Story Arc

It wasn’t going to be Robbie. She only got a positive edit during Les Chicken Wings.

Robbie

It could have been Chi Chi, especially since it looks like the Miss Congeniality voting went up right after her elimination. However, maybe people didn’t feel like she was that congenial. 

Chi Chi

And this year, instead of being a popularity contest, it was actually about who the nicest person was, which fans remembered. I hope Cynthia has an Alyssa Edwards Story Arc over the next couple of years.

Cucu for Congeniality

I’ll see you in Season 9. I promise. Until then, let’s enjoy the All Stars Finale!

Cameron – thanks for pushing me to post this. You’re sweet.

All Stars 2

kiki

In case you hand’t noticed, I’m not writing any posts about All Stars 2. I just wanted to sit back and watch all my faves love up on each other. Thank you, RuPaul, for giving me a chance to see Katya goof around with Alyssa. Best Friend Race GOLD.

I’m just about to publish my RuFlection post about Bob and Kim. Sorry for the long wait. More explanation later.

Love,
me

P.S. if Rolaskatox are top 3 I am going to turn off the TV and just watch all of Katya’s videos.
P.P.S. This was written for Alaska, just like All Stars 1 was written for Chad Michaels. But oh my god if Katya gets the crown, I will cry in my pants.
P.P.P.S. I’m glad I don’t have to try to like Lucian Piane anymore.

alyssaroll

Season 7, Episode 10: Prancing Queens

Katya boy girl
Our little ray of sunshine. So beautiful.

Happy Mother’s Day! This week was all about Katya. You can celebrate now.  Thousands of her children cried with delight when she and Violet delivered this. Katya is now ranked 2nd on Twitter, beating out Miss Fame. She gained the most new followers on Twitter and Facebook, and she pulled a Pearl on Instagram with 10,500 new fans in one week.

After a long gestation, we are getting close to crowning! The top 3, according to fans, are Pearl, Katya and Violet. Pearl is #1 on all three social media channels. Katya is #2 on Facebook and Twitter. Violet is #2 on Instagram.

Pearl has the most fans, but has lip synched twice. Katya has the highest C.U.N.T. score and has ranked high for most challenges. Violet won the W.W.R.P.D.? poll, and she hasn’t had to lip sync yet. Ginger has had the most wins but has been in the bottom 2 twice. Kennedy has ranked high for most challenges, but doesn’t have the social media fans. So who’s it gonna be? Last year it was so obvious. RuPaul loved Bianca, and the people loved Bianca. This year, Ru’s decisions keep us on our toes. Good job, Ru!

Other stuff:

  • Trixie did not get an elimination spike this week. But she got a lot of love on Reddit.
  • Eerie tidbit: Ginger has sat firmly in lucky spot #7 on all three channels since Episode 5.
  • I’ve already talked about Kennedy. Nothing has changed. Even hitting on Pearl didn’t get her more followers this week. (God, that was cute.)
  • Miss Fame is still killing it on Instagram.

Twitter

  • Katya has moved up to 2nd place, and Miss Fame has moved down to #3.
  • Katya gained the most new followers (2,500; 9%), with Pearl close behind (2,300; 7%)
  • Trixie did not get an elimination spike the second time around. She gained 1,500 new followers, compared to last week’s 1,800.
  • The top 3 remaining queens, based on seasonal growth, are Pearl, Katya and Violet.

Twitter Chart

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Facebook

  • Pearl moved up to 1st place, with Miss Fame now in 2nd place.
  • Katya moved up to 4th place (from 6th place), and Max has moved down from #4 to #6.
  • Katya gained the most new followers (3,613; 14%), with Pearl close behind (2,734; 7%).
  • The top 3 remaining queens, based on seasonal growth, are Pearl, Katya and Violet.

Facebook Chart

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Instagram

  • Trixie has moved from 5th place to 4th place. Katya has moved from 6th place to 5th place. Trixie is only winning by 800 followers. I predict that Katya will be in 4th place by next week.
  • Max is now in 6th place, down from 4th place.
  • Pearl gained the most new followers this week (12,000) and now has 151,000 followers.
  • Katya gained 10,500 new followers this week (17%), far exceeding her performance of the last two weeks (7,200 and 5,800).
  • The top 3 remaining queens, based on seasonal growth, are Pearl, Katya and Violet.

Instagram Chart

Instagram Totals

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Instagram Season Growth

Flah-zay-dah (from Sissy that ArT)

FuauDqs

Season 7, Episode 9: Divine Inspiration (+ Hotness Correlation)

Trixie and Ginger

John Waters was on Drag Race! The queens’ ugliness got to shine, sending Miss Fame home. Ginger and Trixie smashed some eggs and Katya spread her legs. It was a beautiful mess.

There’s just something about Pearl. If Bianca’s Twitter track record is any indication, Pearl could win this thing.

If you’ve been following this blog, you know that Pearl has been ranked #1 on Twitter since episode 3. She is now #1 on Instagram, and #2 on Facebook, second only to Miss Fame by only 218 followers. Now that Fame has disappeared, it it very likely that Pearl will jump to #1 on Facebook by next week.

BREAKING NEWS! AS OF THIS BLOG’S PUBLISHING DATE, PEARL IS IN THE LEAD ON FACEBOOK BY 45 FOLLOWERS.

Speaking of Pearl, I also looked at the correlation between hotness and number of followers. People keep asking if Pearl is doing well because boy-Pearl is hot. The short answer:  Definitely on Instagram, yes on Facebook and Twitter. But personality matters. More detail below.*

It was a good week for Katya. Her Brooklyn hipster crocheted realness gave her a chance to shine. She gained the most followers this week on Twitter and Facebook, and gained more followers than usual on Instagram.

Miss Fame had a small elimination spike on Facebook and Instagram, potentially also due to the release of her catchy song, Rubber Doll. On Facebook, she gained about 2-3 times more followers than her usual (2,300 vs. 800). She gained about 20% more than her usual on Instagram. However, Miss Fame saw no spike on Twitter. Evidently, 140 characters isn’t her forte.

Jasmine lost Instagram followers this week. When I went to check out her page, I saw that she marked her page as private. This makes me sad that she has done so poorly in PR land, especially since Trixie said Jasmine is one of the funniest queens on the show.

We are getting close to the end of the season. (Boo.) This means that we can look more at seasonal growth, rather than relative increase in fans. I’ll keep including the seasonal rankings until the end of the show. While many people think that Ginger will win (winner’s edit, time for a big girl), the remaining queens that we are drawn to are Pearl, Katya, Trixie, and Violet. As I’ve said before, the pretty queens are doing better on Instagram, and the funny queens are doing better on Twitter. Except for Pearl. She’s just doing well.

Twitter

  • There are no changes in rank for the past two episodes.
  • Katya is in third place by 100 followers, right behind Miss Fame. I predict that she will be 2nd place by next week.
  • The following queens have seen the most growth over the season: Pearl (22,700), Katya (18,061), and Trixie (17,009).
  • Katya gained the most new followers this week (2,500), followed by Pearl (2,200).
  • Violet and Trixie both gained 1,800 followers. Ginger gained 1,700.
  • No elimination spike for Miss Fame. She is still doing well, with 1,600 new followers this week (6%), similar to last week (1,500).

Twitter Graph

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Facebook

  • Miss Fame and Pearl have been competing for spot #1 for the last couple of weeks. Miss Fame is beating Pearl by 218 followers. I predict that Pearl will return to #1 after next week’s episode.
  • Max is back in 4th place, with Trixie knocked down to spot #5. This rivalry is still strong. Max is only beating Trixie by 83 followers.
  • Katya gained the most followers (2,529; 11%).
  • Miss Fame is a close second, with 2,313 / 6% new followers. She has a bit of an elimination spike this week, as she has typically gotten less than a thousand followers for the past couple of weeks.
  • Kennedy is hanging out at spot #13.

Facebook Graph

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Instagram

  • Pearl is now ranked #1. She has gained 10,000 followers in the last week, and 89,000 followers since episode 1. That’s more followers than most queens have, period.
  • Violet gained 9,200 followers this week, which is slightly higher than the last couple of weeks (8,100 and 8,600).
  • Katya had a bit of a spike this week. She gained 7,200 followers. In weeks past, she gained about 4,500-6,000 new followers.
  • Jaidynn beat Kandy for spot #8. Kandy is now #9.
  • Jasmine has closed her Instagram account and now has a small drop in followers.

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Instagram Totals

Instagram Rank

Instagram Increase #

Instagram Increase %  Instagram Season Graph

Instagram Season Growth

Hotness

My readers often wonder if Pearl is doing so well because boy-Pearl is hot. It’s correlation time! Is there a relationship between hotness and fans? I asked the RPDR reddit community to rank their queen-hotness and boy-hotness, and 1,830 responded. In addition, since one person wondered if there was a relationship between queen-hotness and boy-hotness, I ran a regression on that as well.

Results

  • The hottest boys are Pearl, Miss Fame and Max.
  • The hottest queens are Violet, Miss Fame and Pearl.
  • The least hot boys are Ginger, Jasmine and Kennedy.
  • The least hot queens are Jasmine, Tempest and Ginger.
  • The strongest correlations are:
    • Boy hotness and Instagram followers (R = 0.884).*
    • Queen hotness and Instagram followers (R = 0.875).
  • The weakest correlations are:
    • Drag Queen hotness and Facebook followers (R = 0.756).
    • Drag Queen hotness and Twitter followers (R = 0.788).
    • Boy hotness and Facebook followers (R = 0.796).
  • Queens that are hotter than their boys include Violet, Katya, Kandy, Jaidynn, Kennedy and Ginger.
  • Boys that are hotter than their queens include Trixie and Sasha.
  • However, there is a strong correlation between boy hotness and queen hotness (R = 0.866).

What does this mean?

  1. Hotness really matters on Instagram. Drag race involves a runway, after all.
  2. Hotness is enhanced by personality. If we took this poll after episode 1, Kandy would be beating Katya on both rating systems. But Katya has opened her legs and won our hearts. Hot.
  3. Hotness doesn’t matter as much on Facebook and Twitter, but it still matters. (Who wants to rate their personalities next week? Meeee.)
  4. There is a very strong relationship between queen hotness and boy hotness. I don’t think we can be objective when rating hotness. The boy informs the queen, and the queen informs the boy. We can’t separate those two packages.

Boy Hotness Queen Hotness Queen vs Boy HotnessScreen Shot 2015-05-02 at 4.19.38 PM

* Note: I accidentally used R-squared instead of R at first. This has been changed since the initial post.

Season 7, Episode 8: Conjoined Queens (+ Season-Only Growth)

tumblr_nn4w6fPJf01qlvwnco1_500Ummm… this is one of my favorite RuPaul’s Drag Race episodes EVER. Not only was it the most hilarious LSFYL that I have ever seen, but I got to see if extra screen time would give a little follower-spike to the eliminated queens.

Sadly, it didn’t. None of the heartwarming stories or Untucked bonding gave any spikes to the eliminated queens. While there does tend to be a correlation between screen time and number of followers gained, it doesn’t seem to work if we know they won’t be crowned. I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.

Jaidynn didn’t get an elimination spike. We agreed with Ru that it was time for her to go, even though we would all want to give her a BIG HUG if we saw her in person.

Pretty queen update: Miss Fame’s numbers are on the decline, Violet’s on the rise, and Pearl is still killing it. I summarize seasonal growth at the end of this post, and Pearl is ranked #1 for every channel.

Funny queen update: Trixie and Katya gained practically the same number of fans this week. Both are doing well.

Let’s take a moment to look more closely at Kennedy’s rankings, inspired by my “WHY IN JESUS’ NAME DID SHE WIN THAT MINI CHALLENGE WHEN SOMEONE ELSE DID AN HOMAGE TO PUSSY RIOT?!” reaction. It’s a similar reaction I have when Kennedy does something completely forgettable and then gets praised for it. (This does not include Little Richard. That was good.)

Look at the Twitter chart!

  • Less Popular + Mediocre Performance = Eliminated
  • Less Popular + Mediocre Performance + Receives Praise = Villain

It’s math, so it must be true.

Twitter Villain 2

Twitter

  • The rankings remain unchanged.
  • Pearl, Katya, Trixie and Violet gained the most followers this week. Pearl is in the lead  (2,600; 9%), followed by Katya (2,500; 11%), Trixie (2,300; 10%) and Violet (2,200; 12%).
  • No elimination spike for Jaidynn.
  • While I expected a little spike for the eliminated queens, most gained approximately the same number of followers as in weeks past (150-500 followers).
  • Kennedy shows similar growth patterns to eliminated queens.
  • Tempest is still more popular than the rest of the eliminated queens.

RuPaul's Drag Race Twitter Followers

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Twitter Totals

RuPaul's Drag Race Twitter Rank

RuPaul's Drag Race Twitter Increase # RuPaul's Drag Race Twitter Increase % Facebook

  • Pearl is now in the #1 spot, beating Miss Fame by 13 followers. She also gained the most new followers (2,694).
  • Trixie and Katya also gained a significant number of followers (2,579 and 2,568, respectively).
  • Last week, Max temporarily ousted Trixie for position #4. Trixie has jumped back up to #4, and Max is #5.
  • Jaidynn continues to climb in rank. At episode 2, she was #13. She is now #9, having leapfrogged over Jasmine this week.
  • Kennedy Davenport continues to do well in the competition, but she only gained 280 new followers (4%). Similar to Twitter, she is officially among the ranks of all eliminated queens.

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Facebook Graph

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Facebook Totals

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Facebook Rank

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Facebook Increase # RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Facebook Increase % Instagram

  • The rankings for Instagram remain unchanged. I keep thinking that Pearl will bypass Miss Fame any day now. Pearl gained 9,000 followers this week, compared to Miss Fame’s 5,000. She is 3,000 followers behind Miss Fame. (And 2,000 behind when I posted this blog.)
  • Jaidynn did not get an elimination spike, having gained 2,300 new followers this week, compared to 2,200 last week.
  • Jasmine gained 29 new followers this week, compared to her usual 150-250 per week. Extra screen time might have hindered followership.

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Instagram Graph

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Instagram Graph Instagram Totals

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Instagram Graph Instagram Rank

RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Instagram Graph Instagram Increase # RuPaul's Drag Race S7E8 Instagram Graph Instagram Increase % Seasonal Growth

We are at a point in time that relative increase no longer matters as much, and sheer numbers does. The following charts show the queens’ gain in followers over the course of the season. Since Miss Fame started out with 96,000 Instagram followers, I wanted a chance to see the numbers gained solely as a result of being on the show.

  • Pearl is knocking it out of the park, with the most followers in each channel. She has gained about 20,000 followers on Twitter, 25,000 on Facebook, and 79,000 on Instagram. Want to know what’s funny? In her interview on Homo Happy Hour, she said she doesn’t like doing a lot of social media. SHE DOESN’T EVEN HAVE TO WORK FOR IT!
  • The funny gals (Katya and Trixie) are in 2nd and 3rd place on Twitter, with 15,500 and 15,200 new followers, respectively. The ability to pack a punch in 140 characters is important.
  • The pretty gals (Violet and Miss Fame) are in 2nd and 3rd place on Instagram with 52,200 and 35,700 new followers, respectively. This is appropriate for Instagram’s visual medium, as they do a lot of “Hey, look at my outfit!” posts.
  • Ginger is strongly middle of the road in terms of fans gained on all platforms. People say she is getting the winner’s edit, but fans aren’t buying it.
  • Tempest has gained more followers this season than the queens who were eliminated after her. On Twitter and Facebook, she gained more followers than Kennedy, Kandy, Jasmine, and Sasha.

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Season 7, Episode 7: Snatch Game (+ W.W.R.P.D.? Results)

SnaaaaaaaAAAAAaaaaaatch! Game!

The Snatch Game is such an important turning point in each season of RPDR. It gives us a frame of reference for each queen. If they play well, they choose characters that give us a little more insight into their inspiration and sense of humor. Miss Fame and Violet as Donatella Versace (fashion obsessed), Pearl as Big Ang (irreverent), Jaidynn as Raven Symone (cute and goofy), and Max as Sharon Needles (WHAT? Why didn’t you do the Queen of England?).

Yeah. We were disappointed in Max. She has been so spot on in the challenges up to this point, and then she shattered our expectations. She got a healthy elimination spike, but it is not as high as Trixie’s, probably because the fans regretfully agree with RuPaul and because it’s later in the season.

Violet is starting to show a more Pearl-like growth curve. Her story arc, from cranky and defensive to more vulnerable and human (“I’m not an a-hole, I’m just shy!”) has gained her favor in the fan base. She has made significant gains this week, especially on Facebook and Instagram, where the fashion queens perform better.

Pearl is still doing well, but has less relative growth on Twitter and Facebook than in weeks past. However, she’s still number one on Twitter, and she’s killing it on Instagram, for good reason. I’m a lesbian and I can clearly see that Pearl is smokin’.

And then there’s Kennedy. She is doing well on the challenges, but not loved by the fans. The perfect villain.

Since RuPaul is consistently kicking off fan favorites this year, I added another element to my analysis: the W.W.R.P.D. poll: What Would RuPaul Do? Some people have called me the Nate Silver of Drag Race, which is so flattering. (If only.) The advantage Nate Silver has (besides having a degree in economics and being a genius statistician) is that he can use polls of the American public to predict how they will vote. You can’t poll Ru’s brain, and Ru gets to do whatever the hell she wants. So I polled a bunch of you, who were channeling RuPaul. Bottom line: RuPaul wants “something new” to her lineup of queens. Violet is fashion forward and the future of drag, and Ginger is the big girl that we sorely need to see wearing the crown. Between those two options, fans would rather see Violet get the crown. However, the real fan favorite is Katya. (This is swayed by the fact that this survey is mostly Reddit users, who spend a zillion hours on the internet and love Katya’s online presence. And while they love her presence, they are also willing to spend hours analyzing the game.)

If I had to predict right now, based on W.W.R.P.D. + social media following, I would say that Violet is going to win. She seems like the kinda thing Ru wants this year, and she is starting to seeing rapid growth in fans. (And after all, Ru makes money when the fans like a queen.)

Results from W.W.R.P.D. are after the social media stats. I’ll leave the poll up for awhile, in case you haven’t taken the poll or want to change your answers in response to new episodes.

Twitter

  • Katya is now in third place, beating out Trixie by a hair (300 followers). She has gained the most new followers this week (3,300, 17%) and is gaining on Miss Fame for spot #2.
  • Mini-Elimination Spike: Max saw the highest relative increase (2,900, 20%) and holds rank at #6.
  • Violet gained more followers than usual for her. She gained 2,500 new followers, compared to about 1,800 per week.
  • Pearl is still in the #1 spot, and is in second place for the number of followers (3,000). It’s a healthy growth, but I get the feeling the days of wildly accelerated growth are ending.
  • Jaidynn and Mrs. Kasha are still battling for spots #9 and #10. Jaidynn is on top this week, with 134 more followers than MKD.
  • Kennedy Davenport finally beat Sasha Belle, and is now ranked #12.

Twitter Graph

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Facebook

  • Max beat out Trixie for spot #4. Next week’s returning queen (uh… Trixie?) may change this. Max saw the largest relative increase in followers (2,479, 13%), a wee elimination spike.
  • Pearl gained 1,866 followers, which is good compared to other queens, but a small increase for her. She has gained 4,000-5,000 in weeks past.
  • Violet gained the most new followers (2,922, 11%). When you look at the graph, you can see that Violet’s growth curve is starting to look like Pearl’s, and she could easily catch up to Pearl and Miss Fame by the end of the season.

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Instagram

  • Fashion forward Violet gained the most followers this week (8,100, 12%).
  • Pearl has the second highest number of followers (8,000, 7%).
  • Jaidynn has the highest relative increase in followers (15%, 2,200).
  • Max didn’t have an elimination spike on Instagram. She gained 5,600 new followers, relative to 7,400 (last week) and ~5,000 (prior weeks).
  • Mrs. Kasha Davis beat out Tempest DuJour by 200 followers. She is now ranked #10.

Instagram Graph

Instagram Numbers

Instagram Rank

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W.W.R.P.D?

177 people responded to the survey. (I deleted some duplicate responses.)

  • The majority of respondents think Ru will select either Violet or Ginger (28%).
  • Next in line: Pearl (16%)

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This got me thinking. It’s hard to be objective in this situation, so I broke the data down a little more. What’s the difference between people who think RuPaul agrees with them, and those that think, although their favorite is X, RuPaul is the type of person who goes for Y?

For the sake of argument, let’s assume those that disagree with their channeled RuPaul are more objective than those that agree with their inner Ru.

“Objective” Responses

  • Of those that disagree with Ru, most think Ginger Minj will win (39%) because she is a big girl, and it’s time to have a big girl crowned. She is funny, does well in the challenges, and looks good.
  • Next in line: Violet Chachki (26%). Her cutting edge fashion makes her the “future of drag.”
  • A distant 3rd place is Pearl (13%).

What does this mean? People see Ginger and Violet being edited for the win, even if they want someone else.

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Quotes about Ginger:

“The winners of RPDR are all about diversity — showing that different styles and interpretations of Drag are worthy of the crown. In this vein, the current pantheon desperately needs a big girl. Like, yesterday.”

 “I truly think [RuPaul] is showing much love to the big girls this season. I can feel it! Ginger is funny, solid on the runway with her cohesive looks, lives up to the challenges that are asked of her, and can deliver every time. Not to mention she is experienced.”

Quotes about Violet:

“A fashion forward queen who will consistently deliver great looks. She is also a young queen with an open mind to develop the RuPaul brand further after her season. Older more seasoned queens are set in their ways and most likely want to stay that way. But Violet on the other hand seems more open to change.”

 “A contrast to Bianca, showing the ‘new-edge’ of drag. Specifically she mentioned the “online generation”. Intensely dedicated and interesting aesthetic, probably the most consistent contestant that has performed well aside from Ginger Minj.”

Quotes about Pearl:

“We need a younger queen now. She has grown and continues to shine as the season continues. She has a unique style, like the rest of the winners and is liked.”

 “Because she is different, she brings attitude and talent to the table.”

“Less Objective” Responses

Of those that agree with their inner Ru:

  • Violet got 31% of the vote.
  • Pearl is in second place: 24%
  • Katya is in third place: 19%
  • Ginger is in the bottom: 2%

In this scenario, Violet and Pearl beat out Ginger by a landslide. So does Katya. So let’s look at what the fans want.

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Fan Favorite

Because fanhood matters, the difference between Violet and Ginger is that Violet has a lot more fans than Ginger. This points toward Violet being the winner of this year’s season.

However, the redditor fans want Katya. The quotes about Katya are so effervescent. She obviously brings an enormous amount of joy to her fans.

  • Katya Katya Katya Katya Stan: 35%
  • Violet is a close second: 22%
  • Ginger Minj has 3% of the vote
  • 2% of users want Kennedy Davenport

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Quotes about Katya:

“Katya aka Mom has the perfect CUNT of all seasons. She’s hilarious, hot, campy and still a glamorous queen. Her drag is interesting in a lot of ways and a lot of people can relate to her crazy attitude. She’s comedy without being shady and she’s always delivering (even when she was in the bottom two, she purposely screwed up the challenge *I wish* to kill that lipsync). Moreover, as a winner she will bring a better attitude and vibe to the Drag Race Royalty. Her performances are everything and I could just sit and talk to her forever because she’s so awesome. Mom is love, Mom is life.”

“She’s the full package for me. She can be funny, she can be glamorous, and she can lip sync her tail off. Plus she seems very smart and savvy with social media so she would be a good representative of the RPDR brand.”

Last but not least, this quote makes me wonder and hope that Katya answered my survey. swoon

“If we start by dropping to our knees, in awe, before an Afrocentric High Priestess of chimeric origin (i.e., BeBe Zahara Benet) and then emerge from her holy ziggurat to mix with the rabble outside, and link arms with one irascible, resourceful creature whose primary defense mechanism is camouflaging herself as Beyonce (i.e., Tyra Sanchez), and if we then proceed to find trouble with the law and go on the lam, alone, hiding in the city’s adjacent desert, and, there, if we capture a sylph, born from sun rays, and adopt her for as long as she remains on this plane of existence (i.e., Raja) — and if one day she evanesces, and we have a crisis, and stumble at night into a cult on the outskirts, where a re-animated skeleton (who dresses in the glad rags of meretricious ladies who’ve perished during pilgrimage) invites us to indulge our most private pleasures — and if we take up that invitation, and wake one day in a damp little town, having traveled the world and lost all our friends, and, depressed, at last find comfort in a traveling circus (pitched laboriously wherever there’s room) and become smitten with a Gelsomina clown girl who shouts her songs over the barking dogs — and if we feel optimistic, and join her act, and if that act goes overseas, so that we board a ship, and if that ship is taken by pirates, so that those of us who survive are indentured as servants, and if we’re ridiculed by a garrulous, emerald-tinged bird of paradise that perches high above, laughing at us till we ourselves laugh, finally detached from this world, and laughing, disdainfully, at everything — then Katya should be next, to represent resignation to anarchic goofiness.”