Season 9, Episode 14: The Finale

@papa_velour only has 2,245 followers on Twitter right now. Please correct that immediately.

One last post! I couldn’t help myself. It was really interesting to see Sasha win this one, in light of her 2 shared wins + 6 high placements. I thought the lip sync challenges were a fun addition. [Insert sportsball playoff tournament analogies here.] Now I understand why Redditors predicted her. I’m so good at avoiding spoilers!

Sasha has gained 66.9 tons of fans as a result of her win. Since last week, she gained 112K followers on Instagram and 21.8K followers on Twitter. When you check out the herstogram and look at those spiky gains relative to the other queens, you’ll see why I’m amazed.

Instagram

  • Sasha gained 112K new fans this week. Look at that spike in the histogram below! It is amazing. She is now in 2nd place, with Farrah in 3rd place.
  • Peppermint gained 31K new followers, and moved from 9th place to 8th place.
  • Shea Coulee gained 36K new followers, and remains in 5th place.
  • Trinity gained 24K followers, and moved from 8th place to 7th place.
  • Valentina is still first with 496K followers
  • …Unless you count RuPaul, who has 1.3M followers.

Twitter

  • Sasha Velour gained 21.8K new followers, for a total of 99.8K followers. She remains in first place.
  • …Unless you count RuPaul, who has 967K fans.
  • Shea is still in 4th place, having gained 9.2K new followers, for a total of 67.5K fans.
  • Trinity is still in 5th place, having gained 7.3K new followers, for a total of 53.7K fans.
  • Peppermint is still in 6th place, having gained 8.5K new followers, for a total of 48.8K fans.

Season 9, Episode 13: Reunited

Well that was fun.

Here we are, Squirrelfriends! It’s time to announce our queen.

If I had to place a bet, I would say that Sasha is going to win. I’m curling my toes as I say that, because she has only won two challenges and both wins were shared with Shea. She placed high SIX times, which gives her a high challenge score, but she did not win anything by herself. Ru handed the win to Shea FOUR times. Fans have been predicting Shea’s win since at least episode 6. While Shea isn’t as popular, Ru has ranked her higher than Sasha throughout the challenges.

If I were a producer, I would be intentionally manipulating challenge rankings just to throw everyone off.

Why do I predict Sasha? Because you predicted Sasha. Fans (mostly redditors) think that Sasha will win. That’s the only set of numbers that predicted Bob last year. Kim had a slightly higher challenge score, and more fans. But Bob won, and fans “knew” she was going to win.

What else? Sasha is more popular than Shea. She is winning the hashtag votes (#teamsasha) by a landslide. She has the highest following of anyone on Twitter, and has the highest of the top 4 on Instagram.

Shout out to Trinity. She is playing out her dark horse narrative well. Of the fans, 32% want her to win, even though only 2% think she will win.

“I’m a dark horse, y’all!”

While I’m at it, I thought I would send an extra special thank you to Tiago in Brasil, who did a sweet write up on this nerdy data analyst blog!

Fan (Mostly Redditor) Votes

Last year, the ONLY numbers that pointed to Bob’s win were redditor votes. This year, 954 out of 1217 nerdy queers (78%) think that Sasha is going to win. I also like to ask fans who they WANT to win. There is a fairly even split between Sasha and Trinity, with a slight lead for Sasha. Shea is a close THIRD.

What changed, Squirrelfriends? Shea has been in the lead on this one since episode 6. Something is afoot, and I have a feeling it’s a spoiler that I am trying to avoid. 

Let’s compare this to episode 6, right after Snatch Game. 83% of fans thought Shea would win, with Valentina and Sasha in the running. After that same episode, there were more fans of Sasha, as the majority (34%) wanted her to win.

If we go all the way back to episode 3, most (34%) thought Valentina would win, followed closely by Shea (26%).

Hashtag Votes

Sasha is the most popular, with 18K hashtag mentions over the last 30 days. She is followed by Peppermint (10K), with Shea and Trinity 3rd and 4th place.

“What?” you say? “Last week you said that Sasha had 65K mentions in the last WEEK. What gives?”

I wonder if it’s a bug in the system. I use Talkwalker to gather hashtag numbers, and something is strange. If you look at the 7 day data slice that I took last week, it clearly shows that Sasha has 64.8K mentions.

And if you look at the numbers that Talkwalker gives me this week (for the last 30 DAYS), it only says she has been mentioned 17.9K times.

Either there is data that I don’t get when I use the free version, or there is a bug in their system. You get what you pay for. Shady whores.

Gender is a social construct.

Instagram

  • Valentina is still the most popular, and has almost reached half a million fans. FAN FAVORITE!
  • There are no changes in ranking.
  • Farrah is still in second place with 365K followers, followed very closely by Sasha (345K).
  • After the reunited episode, Sasha and Shea gained the largest following, and Valentina still did well.
    • Sasha: 35K
    • Shea: 25K
    • Aja: 22K
    • Valentina: 19K
    • Peppermint: 18K
    • Trinity: 18K
    • Farrah: 15K

Twitter

  • Sasha has either purchased some Trumpian twitterbotic followers, or she is gaining popularity in this home stretch. She still holds her recently acquired 1st place ranking (78K), and gained 12K followers this week.
  • Valentina still holds second place (67.9K) but only gained 5.1K followers.
  • Peppermint jumped from 8th place to 6th place, ousting Nina and Cynthia.
  • After the reunited episode, queens gained the following number of followers:
    • Sasha: 12K
    • Shea: 7.6K
    • Trinity: 6.2K
    • Peppermint: 6.1K
    • Farrah: 6K

Season 9, Episode 12: Category Is

Hey queer nerds! This is my penultimate blog post!

I really like all four queens. Wouldn’t it be nice to invite the four of them over for Thanksgiving dinner and just laugh and laugh?

But girl, this is a DRAG COMPETITION.

Answer my Who do you think will win? poll. Fans are the best predictor.

We all know the competition is now between Shea and Sasha, our hot, lesbian lovers. We know Shea has a higher challenge score. We know Sasha is more popular. (She is now #1 on Twitter!) But HOW MUCH more popular? Take a look at the hashtag votes from the last week. Sasha has 64,800 votes, compared to Shea’s 21,000. This is a big deal.

Data from Talkwalker

For reference, Kim Chi was beating Bob on Instagram by about 5,000 votes (~17K vs ~12K).* Sasha is beating Shea by a margin of 43,000 votes!

*Instagram only, May 3-5, 2016. Granted, the Kim Chi vs Bob was only recorded over a few days, and I’m only representing Instagram, but that margin is still very small compared to Sasha vs Shea.

WHO WILL WIN?

My logical brain has been telling me that Shea will win. She has a much higher challenge score than Sasha, especially when we know that Sasha’s wins were in partnership with Shea. There were so many episodes that I thought Sasha should win, but RuPaul was just spreading around the love (Snatch Game, Gayest Ball Ever, Draggily Ever After, even the Roast). However, as a liberal arts lesbian who is obsessed with overanalyzing everything, I recognize my bias. I don’t think RuPaul is concealing his love for Sasha. I think he doesn’t like her as much as I do (and 68,000 people who are hash tagging her).

Am I wrong?

Challenge Score

  • I gave each queen a “High” placement tonight, which does not change the rankings, but gives Peppermint a boost in her score.
  • Shea leads with a Safe Sucks Score of 18.5, followed by Sasha (16.5), Trinity (14.5) and Peppermint (8.5).

Instagram

  • Valentina has 448K followers. I predicted she would be at half a million by the finale, but she will probably be closer to 460K-475K.
  • Farrah Moan is still in second place (350K), but Sasha Velour is in third place, and catching up with her (310K).
  • Peppermint (145K) has moved from #10 ranking to #9, sending Cynthia Lee Fontaine down to #10.
  • Aja (295K) is still more popular than Shea (265K) and Trinity (161K).
  • Rankings:
    • Sasha: 3rd
    • Shea: 5th
    • Trinity: 8th
    • Peppermint: 9th
  • Here is the order of elimination, and the ranking of the bottom queens
    • 1st elimination: Jaymes (14th place)
    • 2nd elimination: Kimora (7th place)
    • 3rd elimination: Charlie (11th place)
    • 4th elimination: Eureka (13th place)

Twitter

  • Sasha broke into first place on Twitter! She now has 66K followers, and Valentina has 62.8K.
  • Shea is in 4th place (50.7K).
  • Trinity moved from 6th place to 5th place. She now has 40.2K followers.
  • Peppermint still holds 8th place (34.2K).
  • Here is the order of elimination, and the ranking of the bottom queens
    • 1st elimination: Jaymes (14th place)
    • 2nd elimination: Kimora (11th place)
    • 3rd elimination: Charlie (10th place)
    • 4th elimination: Eureka (13th place)

Season 9, Episode 11: Gayest Ball Ever

 

A Quick Note

I think this is the last year I’ll write this blog. I’ve had fun, and I love the community of queer nerds that follow this blog. I’ll do it next year if I’m unemployed or have some AMAZING revelation about how this can continue to inspire me. I can’t explain why, but I don’t have the enthusiasm for it that I used to. Thanks for all of your love and support over the years. Especially to /u/gmccl, who made those beautiful infographs last year. Hugs all around.

Executive Summary

Shea is going to win, but Sasha is more popular. Trinity is still catching up quickly, but won’t catch up in time to grab the crown.

Here’s an interesting poll that BuzzFeed ran. Most people think Shea will win (85%) but they want Trinity to win (47%). Only 20% want Shea to win.

Miss Congeniality

If Logo TV hadn’t closed their voting by now, then I would think Peppermint had a chance of getting Miss Congeniality. That being said, Valentina is the most popular queen by a LANDSLIDE. Will fans want her to have a consolation prize? Or will they vote for Peppermint because she is so freakin’ adorably sweet?

Challenge Score

  • Shea is in first place, with a Safe Sucks Score of 17, AnalRPDR Score of 13
  • Sasha is in second place, SSS=15, AnalRPDR=11
  • Trinity is in third place, SSS=13, AnalRPDR=9
  • Peppermint: SSS=7, AnalRPDR=4
  • Valentina is in fifth place. POOR VALENTINA!

Instagram

  • Valentina has 433K followers! I bet you my bottom dollar she will reach HALF A MILLION by the season finale.
  • Farrah Moan is still in 2nd place with 341K followers.
  • Sasha (284K) is still beating Shea (246K) by a growing margin. Sasha gained 37K followers, and Shea gained 11K followers.
  • For some perspective, Valentina and Aja have gained more followers than Trinity and Shea.
  • Trinity moved up from 9th place to 8th place. She gained 19K new followers (more than Shea, fewer than Sasha).



Twitter

  • Valentina is the most popular (60.8K followers), followed very closely by Sasha (56.7K followers).
  • Sasha moved up, from 3rd place to 2nd place, ousting Farrah to 3rd. She gained the most new followers this week (6.7K).
  • Trinity Taylor moved up, from 7th to 6th place this week. She gained 5.1K new followers. She also saw the highest relative increase in followers (16%), but her growth is still lower than Sasha’s by 1.6K followers. She is in second place on overall relative increase. (Valentina is first, of course.)
  • Peppermint jumped from 10th place to 8th place. Aja is now in 9th place and Charlie is in 10th place.

Season 9, Episode 10: Makeovers: Crew Better Werk!

Sarge 4 Eva

Raise your hankie if you didn’t cry ONCE during episode 10! I pretty much died during Untucked when they were wringing their hands over the queens’ success. It was like the SNL sketch, but with tears.

Executive Summary

    • The top three still appears to be Sasha, Shea, and Trinity. They have the highest challenge scores, but Sasha and Shea are now tied for #1, with a Safe Sucks Score of 13.5, and an AnalRPDR Score of 10.
    • Sasha is slightly more popular than Shea. She has 247K Instagram followers compared to Shea’s 235K. Sasha has 50K Twitter followers compared to Shea’s 41.9K.
    • Nina Bonina Brown (bless her heart) did not get an elimination spike since her elimination was entirely expected. She is still loved by fans, ranking 6th on Instagram and 5th on Twitter. Hugs to you, Nina Bonina. We all understand how depression can get in the way of ambition. You are a creative genius.

The Winner

If we use today’s numbers, Sasha is going to win. However, the likelihood of her win is similar to that of Kim Chi. Her challenge score is equal to Shea’s, and she is slightly more popular. So… Trump takes the crown!

Trinity

Trinity is most decidedly the dark horse of season 9. On Instagram, she started in 12th place during the pre-season, went down to #14 by episode 3, and is back up to 9th place. On Twitter, she started as #13 in the pre-season, went down to #14 by episode 2, and has crept back up to #7 by episode 10. Her growth in popularity is consistent with her challenge score, which was middle of the road until episode 6, but started to improve by episode 7. While I’m positive she will be top 3, I don’t think she can beat SaShea.

Valentina

The fans still miss Valentina. She gained the most followers this week on Instagram (36K) and is still the most popular on Instagram and Twitter. If she isn’t Miss Congeniality, I will eat my pantaloons.

Challenge Score

  • Now that Shea has been in the bottom 2, she and Sasha are tied for top challenge score. (Safe Sucks Score = 13.5; AnalRPDR Score = 10).
  • Trinity Taylor is placed 3rd (SSS=12.5) and Peppermint is 4th (7). Valentina holds 5th place (SSS=6.5) and still has a higher score than Alexis, who is in 6th place (SSS=4.5).

Instagram

  • Valentina (411K) and Farrah (328K) are still galaxies more popular than Sasha (247K), Shea (241K), and Trinity (127K).
  • Sasha moved up to 3rd place, sending Aja to 4th.
  • Valentina (+36K) gained the most followers this week, followed by Sasha (+27K), Shea (+21K), and Trinity (+18K).
  • Trinity’s relative growth (+17%) is the highest this week. In fact, her relative growth over the past three episodes is higher than other queens (16%, 12%, 17%).
  • The other queens’ rankings remain the same: Shea (5th), Trinity (9th), Peppermint (10th), and Alexis (12th).

Twitter

  • Valentina (57.7K) and Farrah (52.7K) are still more popular than Sasha (50K), Shea (41.9K), and Trinity (31.1K).
  • Nina Bonina Brown jumped over Cynthia Lee Fontaine from spot #6 to spot #5. I wouldn’t call this an elimination spike, since she gained 1,300 followers this week, compared to 2,600 from last week.
  • Trinity gained the highest relative number of followers (+17%, 3.3K) but still gained fewer followers than Sasha (4.5K) and Shea (3.4K).
  • There is no change to the remaining queens’ rankings: Sasha (3rd), Shea (4th), Trinity (7th), Peppermint (10th) and Alexis (12th).
  • Aja beat out Charlie Hides for spot #8. She has 200 more followers than Charlie.

Season 9, Episode 9: Your Pilot’s On Fire

Executive Summary

I finally get to talk about an elimination spike this season! There were some little ones, but the biggest elimination spike happens when RuPaul sends someone home, and everyone feels betrayed. While Valentina’s Challenge Score was dipping, her popularity was at an all time high. She has 375K followers, and I bet she’ll be pushing half a million by the finale.

I thought that Peppermint was going to be crowned Miss Congeniality, but similar to BenDeLaCreme and Katya, I now wonder if Valentina will get the sash. Miss Congeniality is about the most congenial (yes) but it also appears to be a consolation prize for a favorite queen who didn’t make top 3.

In other news, the fans are noticing Trinity Taylor. After episode 7, she ranked #11 on Twitter. Today, she ranks #7! Trinity is certainly the dark horse, and not the villain that I predicted earlier this season.

Challenge Score

  • Shea (15) leads Sasha (12) by a 3-point margin, and Sasha leads Trinity (9) by a 3-point margin.
  • Peppermint is now in 4th place.
  • Although Valentina has been eliminated, she still holds 5th place in the Safe Sucks Challenge score. Alexis and Nina are in 6th and 7th place.

Instagram

  • For Valentina’s elimination spike, she gained 34K followers on Instagram this week. Granted, she gained 34K followers two weeks ago as well. Maybe it’s a mild spike for her, but NOBODY sees those increases. She now has 375K followers on Instagram.
  • Over the course of the season, Valentina has shown the highest relative growth episode over episode. If you look at the last graph, you can see that her relative growth surpassed all the other queens. That graph is a little iffy on its mathiness, because it additively shows percentage growth per episode, but it does illustrate Valentina’s ability to continually grow her fan base.
  • Farrah (315K) and Aja (234K) are still 2nd and 3rd most popular.
  • Sasha (220K) is still slightly more popular than Shea (214K) and Nina (179K).
  • Trinity and Peppermint have gone up in rank. Trinity is now in 9th place (109K) and Peppermint is in 10th (108K).

Let’s just take a moment to look at Valentina’s spikey growth over the season.

Twitter

  • Valentina (54.4K) just leapfrogged over Farrah (50.8K) to 1st place. Her relative growth was 19% this week, compared to episode 8 (10%) and episode 7 (9%).
  • When you just look at the histogram, Valentina, Sasha, and Shea all have little spikes this week. They all have gained more fans after episode 9, compared to the last couple of episodes.
    • Valentina: 4K (Ep 8); 8.7K (Ep 9)
    • Sasha: 3.9K (Ep 8); 6.8K (Ep 9)
    • Shea: 3.6K (Ep 8); 5.2K (Ep 9)
  • Trinity Taylor has moved to 9th place. She has hopped from #11 to #7 in just two episodes.

Season 9 Episode 8: RuPaul Roast

Executive Summary

Please note: I posted the wrong graphs last week. Some of the content has changed. The Challenge Score did show that Shea, Sasha, and Trinity had the top 3 scores. However, the week prior (week 7), Valentina and Trinity were tied for third place. I don’t like to rewrite my data herstory, especially given the elimination on week 9’s show, but I removed some references to Valentina being Top 3.

  • Shea still looks like the winner of Season 9. She has the highest Challenge Score (11.5). She is not as popular as Sasha on social media, but popularity will only tip the scale. Shea has a strong leading margin of 3 points on both the Safe Sucks and the AnalRPDR score.
  • The data show that the top three are Shea, Sasha, and Trinity. Sasha has a Safe Sucks score of 8.5, and Trinity’s is 7.5.
  • Peppermint has a moderate ranking (5th on Challenge score) and low popularity  (11th on Instagram, 10th on Twitter). I have no numbers to back this up, but Peppermint will be Miss Congeniality. Because DUH!
  • Nina and Alexis are not doing well. Both have low Safe Sucks scores (4 and 3.5, respectively). Both queens are pissing off the fans this week. Time to go home!

Challenge Score

  • Shea now has the highest Challenge Score. Her Safe Sucks score is 11.5, and her AnalRPDR score is 9.
  • Sasha Velour is in 2nd place, with a SafeSucks score of 8.5, and an AnalRPDR score of 6.
  • Trinity has the 3rd highest Safe Sucks score (7.5) compared to Valentina’s 6.5. However, their AnalRPDR score is tied (5). Valentina has been safe five times.
  • While Peppermint won this challenge, she is still placed 5th since she has only one win, 2 highs, 1 btm2, and 1 low placement.

Instagram

  • Sweet Lady of Guadalupe, Valentina has 341K fans! Next in line is Farrah, with 296K fans.
  • Sasha and Shea and hobbling along with 198K and 195K fans, respectively.
  • Trinity Taylor jumped from 12th place to 10th place, with 97.2K fans. She technically leaped over Peppermint, who moved from 10th place to 11th place, but Peppermint has 97.1K fans.
  • Trinity has the highest relative growth this week (16%).
  • Alexis Michelle moved from 11th place to 12th place, with 90.4K fans.
  • Everyone’s relative growth has slowed down at this point. It doesn’t look like Sasha and Shea will be able to surpass Valentina, Farrah, or Aja’s followings.

Twitter

  • Farrah still has the highest number of followers (47.5K), but I wonder if Valentina (45.7K) can pass her now that Farrah has been eliminated.
  • Sasha is in 3rd place (38.7K), and Shea is in 4th place (33.3K).
  • Trinity has jumped from 11th place to 9th place, with 18% growth. She now has 23.8K followers.
  • Peppermint has dropped from 9th place to 10th place, but only has 500 fewer followers than Trinity.
  • Alexis Michelle is in 12th place.