Season 8… A Tad Late

Hey. It’s been awhile.

I have to admit I fell into a mini depression over my wrong prediction for Season 8. I know I shouldn’t take my bizarre hobby so seriously but I guess I do, and that’s why I haven’t written in many months. I love it when people call me the “Nate Silver of RuPaul’s Drag Race.” I love it when I see thousands of views every time I wrote a post. I love redditors saying weird shit like “She is hard at work serving statistical fish for your nerves!” and “Wow seeing all these numbers makes me want to feel my oats.”

Venn Diagram analrpdr

Ru would tell me to battle my inner saboteur, so here goes.

It seems fitting that, the year Nate Silver is baffled by the Presidential election, my numbers don’t predict the winner of RuPaul’s Drag Race. (Or maybe Ru is reading my blog and f***ing with me. #dreamcometrue) Kim was more popular on social media and in the hashtag campaign, and she had a (slightly) higher challenge score than Bob. Cynthia did not have a strong following due to her early elimination, she didn’t have a good edit score, but still won Miss Congeniality. So what CAN explain the wins?

On a gut level, many people felt like Bob was going to win. Even from the beginning, people drooled over her Meet the Queens video. So let’s see if there are any numbers that would have pointed to Bob’s win.

Subreddit /r/rupaulsdragrace

First, Redditors’ predictions. Yes, my survey results mostly come from rupaulsdragrace subreddit, and then people comment ON THE SUBREDDIT saying, “The subreddit is so BIASED,” but these fans are the ones paying the most attention. Many of them (us) watch every episode 2-3 times. They argue about the edits. They analyze RuPaul’s Drag Race like it’s a classic novel. They listen to What’s the Tee and Feast of Fun and follow Bland Canyon and dragaholic and dragofficial and whatever nincompoop imgur account with a Pearl drawing.

Right after Episode 6, 53% of the fans predicted that Bob would win. 21% predicted Kim. They were right (except for Naomi Smalls, of course).WWRPD

C.U.N.T. Score

After episode 3, I asked the fans to rate the queens’ C.U.N.T.s. Since Thorgy was eliminated, Bob was essentially in first place.

  • Bob had higher Charisma, Nerve and Talent than Kim. Bob wins.
  • Kim had higher Uniqueness than Bob.

Kim scored particularly low on charisma and nerve. Bob has those two traits in spades.

Total C.U.N.T. Score

TNUC Numbers

Charisma Score

Charisma Numbers

Uniqueness Score

Uniqueness Numbers

Nerve Score

Nerve Numbers

Talent Score

Talent Numbers

Other Non-Numerical Stuff, AKA the What-Not Shelf

I have some other theories about the lineup of winners from RuPaul’s harem:

  1. Smart: They are all really smart. Like, strategic smart. They have an original approach to the challenges. If a challenge is in one of their weaker areas, they find a creative way to work around it.
  2. Different: They can’t be too similar to last year’s winner. Chad Michaels (fashion queen) couldn’t follow Raja, and Ginger Minj (comedy queen) couldn’t follow Bianca.
  3. Similar to Ru: The winners need to be a little bit like RuPaul.

By the way, I used to think that they need to sing, dance, act, and do comedy but then Violet proved me wrong. Violet is amazing at what she does (fashion and movement), but mostly just strategic and smart in her weakness areas (acting, comedy). (See rule #1.)

Bob vs. Kim on the What-Not Shelf

  1. Smart: Bob and Kim on equal footing. Bob and Kim are both smart. Bob’s performance in every challenge was professional, snappy, and quick. Kim handled every challenge with a sly and subversive sense of humor, and capitalized on her weaknesses (e.g. playing the geeky kid in the Bitch Perfect challenge).
  2. Different: Kim wins. Kim is like no other winner in Ru’s harem. She grew up in Korea, and her story can inspire other little boys who have immigrated from countries less supportive of drag and queers. Unlike pretty much every single queen in RPDR, she STILL doesn’t come out to her mother. The biggest ding on Kim in this category is that her fashion is her greatest strength and she couldn’t follow Violet Chachki. On the other hand, Bob feels like a hybrid of Jinkx (theatrical, multitalented) and Bianca (outspoken, bawdy). I love Bob, but in this category her persona doesn’t represent a new segment of drag.
  3. Similar to Ru: Bob wins. Like RuPaul, Bob is extroverted, political, and multi-talented. Her personality feels very similar to Ru’s. Kim’s fashion wowed Ru, but her personality might not be what Ru is looking for when she is sending out her representatives.

That last point, that Kim is too different from Ru, is covered beautifully in this article in The Atlantic. Kim is not going to come out to her mother as a drag queen, even though it’s the Western hero’s narrative that RuPaul’s Drag Race lauds. Refusing to come out to her mother illustrates Kim’s tenacity and individuality, and resonates with queers who know that coming out to their parents through Western rituals isn’t always the best choice.

That’s not the story Ru wants to tell. Bob wins.

Miss Congeniality

While 41% of voters thought that Thorgy would be MC, and only 35% thought Cucu would get the sash, it was obvious from threads like this that Cynthia had stolen the redditors’ hearts. I wonder what percentage of MC voters are hardcore fans, aka RPDR subredditors.

Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 4.28.29 PM

Looking at the story arc, it was almost like they set up Thorgy to fail the MC competition. We loved her, we trusted her, and then she totally betrayed us when she started to fail.

Thorgy Story Arc

It wasn’t going to be Robbie. She only got a positive edit during Les Chicken Wings.


It could have been Chi Chi, especially since it looks like the Miss Congeniality voting went up right after her elimination. However, maybe people didn’t feel like she was that congenial. 

Chi Chi

And this year, instead of being a popularity contest, it was actually about who the nicest person was, which fans remembered. I hope Cynthia has an Alyssa Edwards Story Arc over the next couple of years.

Cucu for Congeniality

I’ll see you in Season 9. I promise. Until then, let’s enjoy the All Stars Finale!

Cameron – thanks for pushing me to post this. You’re sweet.

All Stars 2


In case you hand’t noticed, I’m not writing any posts about All Stars 2. I just wanted to sit back and watch all my faves love up on each other. Thank you, RuPaul, for giving me a chance to see Katya goof around with Alyssa. Best Friend Race GOLD.

I’m just about to publish my RuFlection post about Bob and Kim. Sorry for the long wait. More explanation later.


P.S. if Rolaskatox are top 3 I am going to turn off the TV and just watch all of Katya’s videos.
P.P.S. This was written for Alaska, just like All Stars 1 was written for Chad Michaels. But oh my god if Katya gets the crown, I will cry in my pants.
P.P.P.S. I’m glad I don’t have to try to like Lucian Piane anymore.


Season 8, Episode 9: The Realness

It’s gonna be Kim. I was wrong last week when I predicted Bob. Here’s why:

  • Challenge score is the most important factor. Her challenge score is the highest, because she has won twice three times and has not been in the bottom 2.
  • When a challenge score is close, the hashtag voting (popularity) is the tie-breaker. Her hashtag is the most tweeted (#TeamKimChi).
  • Kim has the most followers on Twitter and waaaaaay more followers on Instagram than any other queen.
  • Ross Mathews said she has the ability to change drag, and RuPaul nodded and said “yes” twice.

One caveat is that Kim has won two challenges, and Bob has won three challenges. Kim’s advantage is that she has been ranked high more often than Bob, and has not been in the bottom two.

To see a history of scores for the top three queens, read this link.

Screen Shot 2016-05-01 at 5.43.58 AM Screen Shot 2016-05-01 at 5.43.41 AM

Hashtag “Voting”

I used Rite Tag for Twitter, and a simple hashtag search for Instagram. Thus the timeline for Twitter stats and the histogram for Instagram.

  • Kim Chi leads this by a landslide.
  • Naomi has a slight lead over Bob on Twitter. WHAT?! Yup.
  • Bob has a slight lead over Naomi on Instagram, but more people are #TeamKim or #TeamKimChi.
Graph Tweets
Source: RiteTag
Graph Retweets
Source: Rite Tag
Graph Tweets and Retweets
Source: Rite Tag


Table Tweets
Source: Rite Tag
Table Retweets
Source: Rite Tag
Table Tweets and Retweets
Source: Rite Tag

Screen Shot 2016-05-07 at 2.46.57 PM
Screen Shot 2016-05-07 at 2.46.12 PM

Miss Congeniality

Now that Chi Chi has been eliminated, I do wonder if she could be Miss Congeniality. I’m still predicting it will be Thorgy, but here’s why I’m torn:

  • Miss Congeniality is usually a recently eliminated queen, pointing to Chi Chi. Her story arc is amazing, and she was silly and lovable in the last episode.
  • MC tends to be popular, pointing to Thorgy. Even though she has been eliminated for several episodes, she still gains a strong number of followers each week.

Cynthia was actually congenial, but the sash has never been given to someone eliminated so early. The general public doesn’t have a good enough memory to vote for queens eliminated in episode three. And if you’re going to compare apples to apples, Thorgy was pretty sweet in episode three as well.


  • The spread between Kim and Bob has widened. Kim has 112K more followers than Bob, and last week she had a 102K lead.
  • Kim gained 26K new followers this week.
  • Bob gained 16K new followers this week.
  • Naomi gained 19K followers and is now in spot #3, and Thorgy has moved down to spot #4.
  • Chi Chi is ranked #7 this week. She gained 8.4K new followers.
  • Thorgy gained 6K new followers this week.

1 Instagram Bar Graph 2 Instagram Raw Numbers 3 Instagram Rank 4 Instagram Increase Numbers 5 Instagram Increase Percentage


  • Kim is leading with 44K followers, having gained 5.5K followers this week, which is a pretty significant increase.
  • Bob is second with 36.9K followers, and gained 4K new followers.
  • Naomi is now ranked #3, pushing Thorgy down to spot #4. She gained 4.7K new followers this week.
  • Chi Chi is now ranked #7, pushing Laila down to spot #8. She gained 2.3K new followers this week.
  • Thorgy gained 1.7K new followers this week.

1 Twitter Bar Graph 2 Twitter Raw Numbers Screen Shot 2016-05-07 at 12.44.48 AM
4 Twitter Increase Numbers 5 Twitter Increase Percentage


  • Bob has the lead on Facebook (after Derrick), and gained the most new followers this week (4.6K).
  • Naomi has jumped to spot #3, and Acid Betty moved down to rank #4. Naomi gained 4K new followers this week, and has 29K total followers.
  • Kim Chi is ranked #6 on Facebook, her weakest social media channel. She has 25K followers, and gained 3K this week.
  • Chi Chi moved from #11 to #9 this week, having gained 2K new followers for a total of 10K.
  • Laila appears to have increased the privacy settings on her Facebook page:
Screen Shot 2016-05-07 at 12.18.15 AM
Laila McQueen hid her Facebook page from me. 🙁

1 Facebook Bar Graph 2 Facebook Raw Numbers 3 Facebook Rank 4 Facebook Increase Numbers 5 Facebook Increase Percentage


Season 8, Episode 8: RuPaul Book Ball


Screen Shot 2016-05-01 at 7.23.09 AM

I know you’re all drooling over Amy Sedaris. You should. Now go pick up a copy of Me Talk Pretty One Day , by David Sedaris, buy some Depends, and pee yourself. Better yet, get the audio book.

Oh my God who is going to win this thing? (and other first world problems)

With Kim Chi’s win this week, her challenge score (both the AnalRPDR and the Safe Sucks Score) is higher than Bob’s (10.5 vs. 9.5). Since she had to lip sync, Bob’s score went from 11 to 9.5 on the Safe Sucks Score, and Kim Chi’s went from 7 to 10.5 with her win. If Kim Chi gets eliminated this week, she will easily be Miss Congeniality and Bob will win. If Naomi or Chi Chi get eliminated, the competition for the crown will be stiffer and more exciting, especially since Kim is more popular than Bob. I’m predicting that both Kim and Bob stay this week.

If Bob gets eliminated… oh who are we kidding? Bob is going to win this thing. We got to see vulnerability this week, which checks off the last box.

Screen Shot 2016-05-01 at 5.43.58 AM

Screen Shot 2016-05-01 at 5.43.41 AM
AnalRPDR Score = 3*Win + 1*High – 2*Btm2 //// Safe Sucks Score = AnalRPDR Score + 0.5*Safe

At this point in time, Naomi has a higher score than Chi Chi (3.5 vs. 2.5), but both scores are still lower than Derrick’s (6) and Thorgy’s (4.5), and Chi Chi’s score is lower than Acid’s (3).

In terms of popularity, Naomi has more followers than Chi Chi. I looked at season growth this week, and Naomi consistently ranks 4th on all three social media channels (just behind Kim, Bob, and Thorgy).

Top three: Kim, Bob and Naomi.

If I didn’t have a job or a band (sponsored by iTunes) or a hot wife, I might sit around and figure out a ratio like Story line: Challenge Score, because Chi Chi’s is really freakin’ high. Don’t be fooled, people! She is not going to win this thing.

Miss Congeniality Poll

When I posed the question, “Who do you think Miss Congeniality will be?” I knew that devout followers would take into account who they think will be eliminated in episode 4. Assuming everyone spent that much time thinking before checking a random box, it looks like (a few) more people think Chi Chi will get sent home (41 votes), followed by Kim (24 votes), and last by Naomi (9 votes). Of course, this could also mean that people forgot about the episode 9 elimination and just clicked “Thorgy” and moved on.

Miss Congeniality is usually the most recent (nice) queen to be eliminated. Oh, who’s kidding? It’s a popularity contest. DeLa (not Darienne or Joslyn), Katya (not Kennedy or Trixie), and Ivy (not Alyssa, Coco, or Detox because Jesus, what a shit show). I wasn’t sure if the producers wanted Thorgy for Miss Congeniality given her latest edit, and that edit is the only thing that makes me think Naomi or Kim will be eliminated in episode 9.

When you look at social media following as a proxy for popularity, Thorgy has the third highest season growth on Instagram and Twitter, and second highest growth on Facebook. She is popular, and that sash is hers. Forty-one percent of poll respondents think it’s going to Thorgy, and the nerdy, obsessive hive-mind of (mostly) Redditors is usually right.

Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 4.28.29 PM

Miss Congeniality Scoring


  • Chi Chi beat out Laila McQueen this week, moving from spot #8 to spot #7. She gained 8.7K new followers, which is an 18% increase (the highest relative increase this week). As I have said in the past, relative increase means more at the beginning of the season than it does at the end of the season. Chi Chi’s season growth is in 5th place, having gained 50.8K new followers since episode 1.
  • Kim Chi is still killing it, and still leading Bob by about 100K followers (102K to be exact). She gained 16K followers this week. She also has the highest season growth (152K).
  • Bob the Drag Queen gained 12K followers, and has the 2nd highest season growth (108.2K).
  • While my data (always taken on Wednesday night, Pacific Time) says that Thorgy is in third place and Naomi is in 4th place, Naomi is now (Sunday) beating Thorgy by about 4K followers.
  • Naomi has gained 14K followers this week, the second highest gain this week. She has the 4th highest season growth (88.5K).

instagram season growth chartINSTAGRAM season growth

1 Instagram Bar Graph 2 Instagram Raw Numbers 3 Instagram Rank 4 Instagram Increase Numbers 5 Instagram Increase Percentage


  • Kim Chi has the most followers, and gained the most followers this week. She has 38.8K followers, with a gain of 3.5K new fans. She also had the highest season growth (+22.8K).
  • Bob the Drag Queen is in second place, with 32.9K followers (6K under Kim Chi). She gained 3K followers this week, just behind Kim. She has the 2nd highest season growth (+21.1K).
  • Thorgy is still in third place on Twitter, but she tied with Naomi today (Sunday) with 24.6K followers. Naomi will have more followers than Thorgy by episode 9.
  • Naomi gained 2.8K new followers this week. When you look at her placement on the histogram, you can see her fast growth relative to the queens behind her. She has the 4th highest season growth, with 18.3K new followers since episode 1.
  • Chi Chi is in 8th place on Twitter, but gained 14% new followers (+1.7K) this week. She gained more followers this week than in weeks past. She ranks 5th on season growth, with 10.7K new followers since episode 1.

twitter season growth chart

twitter season growth

1 - Twitter Bar Graph 2 - Twitter Raw Numbers 3 - Twitter Rank 4 - Twitter Increase Numbers 5 - Twitter Increase Percentage


  • Derrick is winning Facebook. She probably will forever. Go, Derrick! She has not gotten an elimination spike, likely because she was past due for an elimination.
  • Derrick has NOT gotten the highest season growth. In fact, she ranks 3rd on season growth, with 15.8K new followers since episode 1.
  • Bob the Drag Queen is now in 2nd place, having surpassed Acid Betty this week. She gained 3.2K new followers, for a total of 27.9K. Bob has gained the most new followers since episode 1, with 21K new followers. This is pretty amazing, since she had a lot of followers on her Christopher Caldwell account, and essentially started from scratch with a new Bob account.
  • Thorgy ranks 3rd on season growth, with 19K new followers since episode 1.
  • Naomi Smalls is gaining on Acid Betty, and will be ranked third within the next couple of weeks. She ranks 4th in season growth, with 15.7K new followers since episode 1.
  • Chi Chi moved from spot #12 to #11. She has the highest relative increase (21%, +1.4K). She ranks 7th on season growth, with 7.5K new followers.

facebook season growth chart

facebook season growth

1 - Facebook Bar Graph 2 - Facebook Raw Numbers 3 - Facebook Rank 4 - Facebook Growth Numbers 5 - Facebook Growth Percentage

The Edit

Lord have mercy, if you didn’t know Derrick was getting sent home this week, you must really like Britney. Or, maybe you’ve endured so many episodes of Derrick being safe that you started to project a gray cloud over her face whenever she talked.

This week, I only let people vote for one queen instead of three. In terms of numbers, this made Kim stand out, and Chi Chi and Naomi fade into the distance a little.

  • Kim was ranked as having the most positive edit. What a cutie. What a story line. David Sedaris swayed RuPaul’s vote. *heart melting*
  •  Bob the Drag Queen, despite being in the bottom two, ranked 2nd in positive score. She was so vulnerable you wanted to hug her! That corrugated dress was so cute, and what a splash of color!
  • Naomi and Chi Chi were beautiful.
1 Postive Edit
Who got the most positive edit this week? (Pick one.)
2 Negative Edit
Who got the most negative edit this week? (Pick one.)
3 Overall Edit
Positive Edit – Negative Edit = Overall Score


Story Arcs

Bob Story Arc
You’re so complex, Bob! But your highs compensate for your lows, and we love you.
Chi Chi Story Arc
Skewing negative. Can I get a best fit line up in here?
Derrick Story Arc
Oh Derrick, how dare they paint you the villain?
Kim Story Arc
Love and hugs, sunshine and doughnuts.
Naomi Story Arc
The dark horse may have peaked already. Love her. Beautiful mom story.